Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

[Vol]

Fun fact: If you believe (some of) the pollsters, Hillary is predicted to win by a bigger margin than Obama in 2008.

IPD, LA Times, and Rasmussen show ties or small Trump leads within the MOE, depending on the day, and are weighted down by 2-5 points towards Clinton depending on whatever 538 is guessing is the real result.

ABC has just started doing a tracking poll, and in their inaugural run, they've come up with Clinton +12 nationally, and winning men and Independents. So they may need to look at their methodology. However, they're given A+ status by 538 and only 1 point of adjusting.

I, personally, believe we're looking at a Brexit situation, only more magnified by various factors. If people are interested, I'll even put my money where my mouth is and set up a little betting pool here.

[TheodoricFriede]

I, personally, believe we're looking at a Brexit situation, only more magnified by various factors. If people are interested, I'll even put my money where my mouth is and set up a little betting pool here.

Tell me more?

[Mazder]

As someone actively going through Brexit....don't start betting on shit.
Brexit hasn't truly even begun yet, we're still very much in the early departure days so using us as a method for predicting the similarities that could be projected upon your economy should not be done.

That is all I shall say on the matter.

[TheodoricFriede]

As someone actively going through Brexit....don't start betting on shit.
.

Tell me less.

[Mazder]

As someone actively going through Brexit....don't start betting on shit.
.

Tell me less.

Less.

[Sites32]

Hilldog is probably one of the most curropted politicians to ever sit in a public office. I so wanted to buy the bs her campaign has been offering but after doing my own research and keeping clear of all the social media garbage this election has fueled it's just too hard to ignore what's obvious. Clinton is a snake who will say and do anything to help with her own self interests and agendas. She has backpedaled so much on her words and policies that I find it difficult to even attempt to believe anything that falls from her mouth.

Do I support Trump? No but Clintons cooperate sponsored campaign scares me. Not to mention her stance on foreign policies that are treading so close to a all out war with Russia that you would think that it would be discussed more among voters but it's not, in favor of such things like....pussy grabbin' and Trumps crued or brutish behaviour.

The shit show social media has made this election in and itself is sad.

[DarkStorm]

http://www.dallasnews.com/news/2016-pre ... ated-women

haha

[Spartanburger]

ABC has just started doing a tracking poll, and in their inaugural run, they've come up with Clinton +12 nationally, and winning men and Independents. So they may need to look at their methodology.

Perhaps, but a poll putting out results that you disagree with, or that disagree with some other poll, is not an indication of faulty methodology.

Unexpected results are not an indication of faulty methodology. An example: Data from the Census bureau indicate that the more fast food restaurants there are per 1,000 people in a given county, the lower the county's obesity rate. Statistically significant to something like 99%+. An unexpected result, but their methodology is good. The reality is that the proportion of FF restaurants to people in a county interacts with more than one single factor when it comes to obesity. Same thing in the election: an unexpected poll result does not immediately indicate a fault in methodology, especially given the subject matter, where support for a candidate, especially among undecided voters, can shift frequently. It could be that voter opinions changed.

I didn't want to tacitly support any of the bigger streams and RSBN wasn't covering the debate proper.

Mind if I ask why? There were many options for viewing the debate without commentary. The YouTube one was particularly good; it even had live closed captioning, though it was about 15 seconds behind.

Personally, I read the transcriptions of the debate on the Reddit livethread so that I didn't have to strain my ears trying to one when the other was interrupting them, and that I could read and process what was being said in my own time.

I don't know how raising the taxes on the rich to pay for everything, and also lots of new stuff, will work when they can so easily leave or outsource, which they've been doing for decades now. Seems like it would fuck over companies big enough to have a lot of revenue, but not so big they can circumvent the tax law or move overseas, like the printing press factory I did a small job for the other month.

IIRC, what the whole "higher taxes" thing actually applies to is taxes specifically on the highest earners, those whose incomes are so great that they could retire on a single year's worth of income and live comfortably for another three decades. So it wouldn't apply to small, or even medium size businesses.

As for taxes on imported goods, the logic being that it makes it more expensive for companies to sell their product/service in the U.S. if they outsource the jobs than it would to have stayed here. Of course, there are some loopholes to this. Companies can make the components overseas and do final (partially or completely automated) assembly stateside, and so earn their U.S.-manufactured badge. Get rid of the loopholes and you might stem the tide of jobs leaving.

But the thing is, reducing the tax won't make things better either. The jobs aren't coming back either way. Slash taxes, and it's still many times cheaper to manufacture overseas than it is here in the U.S. It's similar to job automation. It's cheaper in the long run to replace the fast food checkout people and food prepares with machines - it has been for quite some time. But only now with the minimum wage issue is the savings great enough to companies to actually take the dive and make that change. Same thing with outsourcing. It's always been cheaper, it will always be cheaper, and it will eventually happen one way or the other, regardless of taxes.

In its simplest form, taxes are applied after operating expenses, and after additional deductions. As such, if you're not able to cover your business expenses, in general, you have no profit and therefore no tax liability. The rates could be 90% and it wouldn't matter. Plus, then you get that loss carryforward/back that helps you out when you pull out of the red. This is what's allowed Trump to (allegedly) pay zero taxes for the last 20 years after losing a billion dollars.

This isn't the case for personal income, by the way, where for most Americans deductions are small or non-existent. The best way to counter personal income tax is to put away a flat rate from your paycheck into savings. When tax season comes, you either owe some and pay from the savings, or you get a refund and still have the savings fund available in case of other unexpected consequences.

The current corporate income tax affects what's left after the operating bills are paid. The remaining amount is either re-invested in the company or paid out to shareholders (or owners for non corporations) as distributions. Sometimes, these activities are deductible, or taxed at separate rates (i.e., dividends). If taxes are harming a company's ability to continue operating, then whoever is running the show doesn't know what they're doing. The highest tax bracket only kicks in after 18.33 million in taxable income.

The paper I wrote was on some interesting details about the Corporate Income Tax and Obama's 2008 tax plan regarding it.

The U.S. has one of the highest corporate income tax rates in the OECD. In addition, the U.S. is, IIRC, the only company in the OECD that has a tax on income earned overseas. If you are a U.S. based company, and you earn income in another country, you have to pay U.S. taxes on it, even after paying taxes on it in the country it was earned in. This tax, however, can be deferred in perpetuity until the income is repatriated, so if you leave your profit overseas, you don't pay taxes on it. This, combined with varying rates for different countries and a few other small laws, allow for things like the Double Irish and Dutch Sandwich, that effectively moves taxes out of the U.S. and into low income havens. But, that income stays overseas. In 2012, there was over $1.7 trillion stuck overseas, doing fuck-all, due to companies not wanting to pay taxes on it.

One possible solution is repatriation holidays, which offer a day in which the foreign-income tax is drastically reduced. This happened in 2004, IIRC. It had tremendous support from companies, who all promised from the bottom of their hearts to use the repatriated profits to invest in innovation, jobs, ect ect. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, this is what happened:

[The repatriation holiday] did not lead to an increase in domestic investment, employment or R&D -- even for the firms that lobbied for the tax holiday stating these intentions and for firms that appeared to be financially constrained. Instead, a $1 increase in repatriations was associated with an increase of almost $1 in payouts to shareholders

Additionally, many of the tax deductions in the current corporate tax code create incentives for certain riskier types of investments. For example, debt vs equity financing.Equity financing is effectively taxed at 36.1% at the highest bracket, whereas debt financing, thanks to deductions, are taxed at an effective rate of -6.4%. Though perhaps not necessarily a bad thing, having huge levels of debt financing can create serious issues during economic recessions, like with the 2008 crisis.

Obama's proposal was to cut the marginal tax rates down so that the highest bracket was 28% instead of 35%. A whole multitude of tax deductions and expenses would be eliminated, too, simplifying the code and making DI and DS ineffective. It would also eliminate - or at least significantly cut - the foreign income tax. Of course, congressional deadlock, and lobbying, killed it. Companies enjoyed the tax loopholes, and some of the planned removals of deductions would get rid of incentives that certain businesses had been enjoying for years, so they pushed hard to have it killed or modified.


As for why a high tax rate,

The primary purpose of the Corporate Income Tax is to re-balance wealth in order to prevent dangerous or inefficient levels of capital and wealth from consolidating in the hands of only a few individuals. The first instance of a Corporate Income Tax – at least in the U.S. - sprouted during the turn of the nineteenth century, an era commonly referred to as the "progressive era." During this time, company mergers led to an unprecedented consolidation of wealth into the hands of a small number of individuals, leading to concerns over wealth distribution and power (capital) consolidation. The intent of the Corporate Income Tax was to directly address these concerns by taxing corporate income. This roughly followed along with the generally accepted cultural principle at the time where tax burdens are applied in proportion with one's ability to pay. A higher income meant a higher ability to pay, which is why a marginal corporate (and personal) tax rate system was eventually adopted.

I wrote the paper in comic sans and got a 90% on it.

Of course if everyone wants to ignore the wikileaks.

Let me sum them up for you:

Presidential candidate performs opposition research. Shocking!
Presidential candidate performs self-opposition research!
Hillary's speech transcripts revealed! How one presidential candidate actually explains the millennial plight to big corporations in a favorable way!
Hillary's staff receive spam emails for penis enlargement!
6th man on moon emails Clinton campaign with exclusive information regarding aliens and ZPE devices!
Leaks of foundation emails confirm intelligent, nuanced and, dare I say it, caring language used when discussing Haiti relief program.

I'm cherry picking from some of the ones I've read, but from the more serious claims coming out of the intelligent private investigators over on the_donald, most of those claims are easy to interpret one way or the other based on political or moral leaning. More importantly, without context and proper education, an incredibly innocuous thing could be seen as incredibly sketchy. It could be revealed that Hillary risked her life to swim out in the middle of a raging river to save some drowning kittens and there'd still be some who would claim a scandal, saying that it was reckless and un-presidential, putting the lives of her secret service on the line.

On another note, the god-emperor totally won the debate.



And as for those O'Keef video, ignoring that the Trump Foundation paid the guy, I really have to wonder why he, of all people, was the one to "leak" the stuff in them. He's established himself as having little credibility, so having him be the one behind the leak damages its impact right from the start. If he really wanted the scandal to be revealed, he should have passed the footage on to someone with actual credibility.

And O'Keef's credibility?

• His ACORN video was a deceptive edit. The raw video showed nothing illegal, O'Keef was sued, and he lost.
• His Planned Parenthood video was a deceptive edit. The raw video showed nothing illegal, and he is being sued for it.
• His Cornell video of a school official backing ISIS was a deceptive edit in which the raw video showed that it never happened.
• His NPR selling stories video was a deceptive edit, where the raw video showed it never happened, and that they actually kicked him out for even offering to pay.
• His NEA teachers gone wild video was a deceptive edit with the raw video showing, at worst, extremely tame behavior. One teacher was suspended for seven days.
• His Open Societies sting failed because he forgot to hang up his phone, laid out his entire plan to someone else within earshot of the phone, and it was recorded.
• His Mary Landrieau sting, where he claimed her office was not answering calls from constituents during the ACA debate, failed because he got arrested in her office for impersonating a phone technician when trying to bug her phones. He was found guilty of entering a federal building under false names.
• O'Keef Dildo Boat. He tried to lure a CNN reporter onto a boat, get her drunk or drugged, and then film her doing embarrassing stuff.

It should come as no surprise that some are are rather skeptical of the video's authenticity. Some are asking for the unedited, raw video, and he's saying no. Some of this supporters are suggesting that the raw video would be worse for Clinton, but if that was the case, why not just put it out? If what they claim is true, the only two outcomes here are either unverified scandal, or verified and actually even worse for Clinton.

[DarkStorm]

http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/wiki ... king-news/

So this is nothing then. Oh right....

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/?q ... archresult

I doubt you read them all.

[FrozenShadow]

Hilldog is probably one of the most curropted politicians to ever sit in a public office. I so wanted to buy the bs her campaign has been offering but after doing my own research and keeping clear of all the social media garbage this election has fueled it's just too hard to ignore what's obvious. Clinton is a snake who will say and do anything to help with her own self interests and agendas. She has backpedaled so much on her words and policies that I find it difficult to even attempt to believe anything that falls from her mouth.

Do I support Trump? No but Clintons cooperate sponsored campaign scares me. Not to mention her stance on foreign policies that are treading so close to a all out war with Russia that you would think that it would be discussed more among voters but it's not, in favor of such things like....pussy grabbin' and Trumps crued or brutish behaviour.

The shit show social media has made this election in and itself is sad.

Yep, this, and other stuff I have been reading from both sides, just shows one thing.

No matter who wins the election, America loses. As roughly half of America will hate the president, no matter who it is.

[SciFlyBoy]

... As roughly half of America will hate the president, no matter who it is.

That's virtually every president from the past 50 years.

[Vol]

FBI Director Comey sent a letter to Congress informing that by means of an unrelated investigation, new evidence in the Clinton private server/email case has come up, and he has decided to investigate them. Chaffetz, a GOP politician from Utah, announced on Twitter that this means the investigation is reopened, which is being plastered over the news media.

Also a video of Trump being crude and lewd with a beauty contestant on stage surfaced, but it's been largely buried under the Clinton/FBI deal so far.

[DarkStorm]

FBI Director Comey sent a letter to Congress informing that by means of an unrelated investigation, new evidence in the Clinton private server/email case has come up, and he has decided to investigate them. Chaffetz, a GOP politician from Utah, announced on Twitter that this means the investigation is reopened, which is being plastered over the news media.

Also a video of Trump being crude and lewd with a beauty contestant on stage surfaced, but it's been largely buried under the Clinton/FBI deal so far.

Considering the investigation is more important I would hope so.

[Mobius_118]

Well they've been after her since 92.

If there really was something she'd be in jail.

[DarkStorm]

The wonders of money.

[TheodoricFriede]

Well they've been after her since 92.

If there really was something she'd be in jail.

O.
J.
Simpson.

[Mobius_118]

Well they've been after her since 92.

If there really was something she'd be in jail.

O.
J.
Simpson.

Yeah I remember that too.

Watching that on TV back in 94 was insane, watching that piece of human garbage get off when there was a shitload of evidence against him. If the doesn't fit you must acquit or something.

Say, that was the same year I decided I wanted to be a soldier.

CONSPIRACY!!!!!11!!!

Seriously? Her emails are once again in the spotlight? Motherfucker, the Bush administration deleted millions of goddamn emails from their private networks, and not a goddamn peep from anyone.

Also...None of the emails were classified...

Benghazi? There were nearly a dozen attacks on Embassies during Bushs' 8 years.

Oh, but Trump can be a human dumpster fire and Johnson can be dismissive of scientific fact concerning climate change, be unable to name a single foreign leader, and they still get votes? Some country this is, where I get to stand by and watch half the nation collectively announce that they're a bunch of sub-intelligent retards, and the other half is sensibly voting for Clinton.

[DarkStorm]

Right...I mean this like your opinion man.

[Mobius_118]

An opinion backed up by years of objective observation and fact gathering...

But, fuck it. Let the cheeto win, right?

Never toppled a dictatorship before. I missed that bandwagon back in 05.

[DarkStorm]

Mmmhm.

[Mobius_118]

So, what. You want anarchy, WW3, to be enslaved?

You're part of the problem.

[DarkStorm]

So, what. You want anarchy, WW3, to be enslaved?

You're part of the problem.

I'm not theo you can't probe me to crack if that's what you want.

[DarkStorm]

http://www.projectveritasaction.com/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dY77j6uBHI

[TheodoricFriede]

I'm not theo you can't probe me to crack if that's what you want.

But cracking just feels sooo good.

[Grand Admiral Cheesecake]

So, what. You want anarchy, WW3, to be enslaved?

You're part of the problem.

Because I know when I think of a corrupt war hawk with years of experience in toppling governments and spreading chaos I think of Donald Trump...


Oh wait.

[TTTX]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opnT5w_TH2Y&index=9&list=WL

[Mobius_118]

So, what. You want anarchy, WW3, to be enslaved?

You're part of the problem.

Because I know when I think of a corrupt war hawk with years of experience in toppling governments and spreading chaos I think of Donald Trump...


Oh wait.

Precisely who you should think of.

The man will have the US removed from the UN, isolationist, and not too dissimilar from North Korea in terms of freedoms.

Since he admires dictators and all.

[Grand Admiral Cheesecake]

So, what. You want anarchy, WW3, to be enslaved?

You're part of the problem.

Because I know when I think of a corrupt war hawk with years of experience in toppling governments and spreading chaos I think of Donald Trump...


Oh wait.

Precisely who you should think of.

The man will have the US removed from the UN, isolationist, and not too dissimilar from North Korea in terms of freedoms.

Since he admires dictators and all.

Wew lad that's some impressive reeeeeeach there.

I'm sure overthrowing more governments will work this time Hilary! Hasn't worked the last half a dozen times but by god we will get it right this time!

[TheodoricFriede]

By the way Vol, if you are still interested in making a bet, I'm all ears.

Edit: Heres a sample one!
What will be more disappointing, the results of this election or N7 day?

[Mobius_118]

Wew lad that's some impressive reeeeeeach there.

I'm sure overthrowing more governments will work this time Hilary! Hasn't worked the last half a dozen times but by god we will get it right this time!

Not really reaching when the Trump has already praised the dictators of Russia, China, North Korea, Iraq, and now the Philippines.

If that fucking cheeto wins, we'll see it right here.

And as a sworn in member of the United States Army, soon to be part of the Individual Readiness Regiment, I'll be charged with handing out the dictators rule.

We all have a stake here, some more than others.

Despite your lack of faith in the US government, maybe you should look beyond your own selfish wants.

[DarkStorm]

Or despite your blind trust in it.

[Mobius_118]

Or despite your blind trust in it.

Definitely not blind.

I just vote for the best candidate. You know, no Republicans.

Because they haven't had a good candidate in my lifetime. And right now?

Are you serious? If there is any hesitation in choosing Clinton or Trump, you need your head checked. It's a choice between a lying, misogynist, cheating racist pig or someone who used email in a non-criminal way.

It's not even a debate anymore.

[DarkStorm]

Right....if you say so. You probably watch mainstream media don't you?

[Mobius_118]

Right....if you say so. You probably watch mainstream media don't you?

I don't own a TV.

[DarkStorm]

http://www.projectveritasaction.com/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dY77j6uBHI

[Mobius_118]

Already seen that.

I can just as easily pull up the daily dumpster fire that is Trump, or the wishy washy failed Republican Gary Johnson.

[Grand Admiral Cheesecake]

Or despite your blind trust in it.

Definitely not blind.

I just vote for the best candidate. You know, no Republicans.

Because they haven't had a good candidate in my lifetime. And right now?

Are you serious? If there is any hesitation in choosing Clinton or Trump, you need your head checked. It's a choice between a lying, misogynist, cheating racist pig or someone who used email in a non-criminal way.

It's not even a debate anymore.

Exactly. Long live the Trumperor!

Gas the Clintons Brexit now!

[DarkStorm]

Already seen that.

I can just as easily pull up the daily dumpster fire that is Trump, or the wishy washy failed Republican Gary Johnson.

Yeah proof doesnt prove anything I forgot. Silly me.

[TheodoricFriede]

Yeah proof doesnt prove anything I forgot. Silly me.

It depends on what the meaning of "is" is.

[Mobius_118]

He wins, I'm burning my orders to return to the Army.

I will not be complicit with a dictator.

[DarkStorm]

Ok.

[Grand Admiral Cheesecake]

He wins, I'm burning my orders to return to the Army.

I will not be complicit with a dictator.

"I refuse to accept the democratically elected leader of my country!"

[Mobius_118]

Boys, serve your country.

Maybe a little perspective is required so you'll see reason.

[Vol]

Whole bunch of polls today.

Clinton has a lead in all the national polls except the LA Times, which is Trump +2. IPD has gone from Trump +2 to Clinton +2 in a 4-way. ABC's new tracking poll, however, has plummeted from Clinton +12 to Clinton +1, which I suspect is a result of not fudging their results super hard. So nationally, it appears to be real close according to the pollsters.

Trump finally posts a positive poll in a swing state with a +4 in Florida from the NY Times, the other 2 Florida polls were +1 Clinton.

Colorado, NC, Maine's 2nd, and Arizona are all in the MOE, with all but the last leaning Clinton. Utah is +2 Trump, but Clinton's in a hard third there, as the spoiler McMullin is the one vacuuming up votes. Though I'm dubious of the poll.

So if you believe the polls, the race is getting tighter with a lean towards Clinton. The reactivated FBI investigation has yet to be reflected in results.

[TheodoricFriede]

He wins, I'm burning my orders to return to the Army.

I will not be complicit with a dictator.

You are as bad as the people that are saying Texas should secede if Hillary wins.

I dont support Clinton, but if she wins she is my president, ad at the very least will have my respect for the position.

You absolutely disgust me.

[DarkStorm]

And what perspective is gained from the military to see reason?

[Grand Admiral Cheesecake]

No thank you. I'm not much for indoctrination. And find following orders to be rather impossible.

[Mobius_118]

He wins, I'm burning my orders to return to the Army.

I will not be complicit with a dictator.

You are as bad as the people that are saying Texas should secede if Hillary wins.

I dont support Clinton, but if she wins she is my president, ad at the very least will have my respect for the position.

You absolutely disgust me.

So...No change there.

Glad we're on the same page.

Trump has always been a piece of trash undeserving of anything more than bankruptcy and a lonely death. He doesn't deserve the Presidency. He wins, it's over. We'll be a bankrupt nation much in line with his other business ventures.

Oh, and the south can burn.

No thank you. I'm not much for indoctrination. And find following orders to be rather impossible.

Hmm, indoctrination. Espirit du corps isn't indoctrination. I joined out of love of country and wanting to do more. Guess you don't have what it takes.

And what perspective is gained from the military to see reason?

Love of country, willingness to lay down everything for your brother and sister, fellow countrymen.

And knowing when to call bullshit when you see it. And right now Trump should've been eliminated from the running months ago.

[TheodoricFriede]

Oh, and the south can burn.

Im from California, dear.

[Mobius_118]

Oh, and the south can burn.

Im from California, dear.

I know, kid.

I remember when Grit and I were hooking you and Raga up.

How's that Texas weather been treating you?