Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

[Vol]

History is like poetry, it rhymes.

So last I heard, the Italian left had blunted a previous rightward swing that was the...uh...5 Star party, or whatever it's called, forming a coalition with some way more moderate parties, I think. Then the left won big in the next election, and they didn't have the power to do anything for a while. So now you have this broad. What happened there?

Apparently she's a huge Tolkein fan. I'm trying to find out in what specific way she's a fascist, since I heard she literally made statements in support of Il Duce, but it's impossible to find anything right now in the emotional frenzy.

[Vol]

Nord Stream 2 appears to have been blown up, intentionally. Last I heard, it was already off indefinitely for "maintenance." So the obvious culprits are Russia and America. I'm not entirely sure what motivation Russia would have, since gas is their economic leverage to sue for a deal, but people keep saying it. Whereas it's completely in character for the US to risk a massive reprisal on unnecessarily destabilizing terrorism, because our military contractors and pork barrel bois need this thing to escalate.

That said, does anyone know if this kind of thing is easy to fix? I have no idea how undersea pipeline construction works.

[Someone With Mass]

Nord Stream 2 appears to have been blown up, intentionally. Last I heard, it was already off indefinitely for "maintenance." So the obvious culprits are Russia and America. I'm not entirely sure what motivation Russia would have, since gas is their economic leverage to sue for a deal, but people keep saying it. Whereas it's completely in character for the US to risk a massive reprisal on unnecessarily destabilizing terrorism, because our military contractors and pork barrel bois need this thing to escalate.

That said, does anyone know if this kind of thing is easy to fix? I have no idea how undersea pipeline construction works.

I'd guess that putting the pipes together would be the most difficult part, since you'd have to send someone/something down there to do it.

Also, Europe's gas reserves are practically full and we're working on other pipelines to countries that aren't lead by uncivilized retards. Like Norway.

[Vol]

I'd guess that putting the pipes together would be the most difficult part, since you'd have to send someone/something down there to do it.

Also, Europe's gas reserves are practically full and we're working on other pipelines to countries that aren't lead by uncivilized retards. Like Norway.

Read a blurb that Germany's saying it's fucked, can't be patched up. But on the plus side, you guys won't freeze to death or go bankrupt in the process then? Because that matters infinitely more to me than government's waving their cocks at each other.

Speaking of video games, remember back when this woke/SJW/whatever stuff was getting started? How the reason for getting rid of sexy women and manly men was because it would reinforce harmful stereotypes, something something, real world harm? It seems like a lifetime ago, when all this theory was sincerely argued, on forums, on the news, as if it there was a moral backing behind any of it. Can't remember the last time any of the art these people create came with an explanation of why it's so much better than what came before, it's all taken for granted that "diverse, gay, subversive" is definitionally good, and anything your dad would see growing up is bad.

[TTTX]

Speaking of video games, remember back when this woke/SJW/whatever stuff was getting started? How the reason for getting rid of sexy women and manly men was because it would reinforce harmful stereotypes, something something, real world harm? It seems like a lifetime ago, when all this theory was sincerely argued, on forums, on the news, as if it there was a moral backing behind any of it. Can't remember the last time any of the art these people create came with an explanation of why it's so much better than what came before, it's all taken for granted that "diverse, gay, subversive" is definitionally good, and anything your dad would see growing up is bad.

more like the women, the men not really outside of being more like pussies and incompetent then their female counterparts.

nothing like make the gender look at each other as enemies, the people who are suppose to make the next generation, what could possible go wrong?

[Vol]

more like the women, the men not really outside of being more like pussies and incompetent then their female counterparts.

nothing like make the gender look at each other as enemies, the people who are suppose to make the next generation, what could possible go wrong?

Now and again, I'm exposed to normie social media. The people who make a career out of "gender wars" stuff is like this. Because men do this, women have to do that. Because women do that, men have to do this. It's an insane way of thinking, if you start from the presumption that men and women should pair off and start families.

[TTTX]

Now and again, I'm exposed to normie social media. The people who make a career out of "gender wars" stuff is like this. Because men do this, women have to do that. Because women do that, men have to do this. It's an insane way of thinking, if you start from the presumption that men and women should pair off and start families.

a lot of modern women and men are now really depressed over that and well over a lot stuff in society, but not having men a women pair and have kids are going to bite you in the ass which is a crisis we are facing right now where the elders outnumber the young.

[FrozenShadow]

So, Putin and Russia has just lost last of their brain cells. Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, where they kept "referendums" are officially part of Russia. Weird world we live in, when one guy thinks he can change the national borders by mere one-sided words.

But if this looks bad, it could get hell lot of worse. As Russian military doctrine allows the use on nuclear weapons to defend their "existence", I wouldn't be surprised, if we soon hear that Russia decides to used tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine. After all, they are losing so damn bad right now, those weapons might be only way to stop Ukrainian advance.

[Someone With Mass]

So, Putin and Russia has just lost last of their brain cells. Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, where they kept "referendums" are officially part of Russia. Weird world we live in, when one guy thinks he can change the national borders by mere one-sided words.

But if this looks bad, it could get hell lot of worse. As Russian military doctrine allows the use on nuclear weapons to defend their "existence", I wouldn't be surprised, if we soon hear that Russia decides to used tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine. After all, they are losing so damn bad right now, those weapons might be only way to stop Ukrainian advance.

Not without retaliation from several NATO countries, but I'm guessing that's what Vladolf wants, because his fragile ego can't handle losing to a country that "doesn't exist" in his almost literally retarded vision of the world. If the Russians had a fraction of a spine, they'd shoot Putin in the face until it stops resembling a face.

Also, I just declared that the Murmansk Oblast belongs to Sweden again. It's official because I say so. No country that actually means something will recognize it, but if Putin can do it, so can I.

[Vol]

a lot of modern women and men are now really depressed over that and well over a lot stuff in society, but not having men a women pair and have kids are going to bite you in the ass which is a crisis we are facing right now where the elders outnumber the young.

Seems like the only way this will be fixed is generationally, when the younger people look at all the elderly who have no one and nothing, and decide to avoid that as best they can. The opposite of what our parents did, heh.

So, Putin and Russia has just lost last of their brain cells. Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, where they kept "referendums" are officially part of Russia. Weird world we live in, when one guy thinks he can change the national borders by mere one-sided words.

But if this looks bad, it could get hell lot of worse. As Russian military doctrine allows the use on nuclear weapons to defend their "existence", I wouldn't be surprised, if we soon hear that Russia decides to used tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine. After all, they are losing so damn bad right now, those weapons might be only way to stop Ukrainian advance.

The Russians gave up another city too. Seems like they're not putting up any defense, much like counteroffensive, while they train the new fodder.

Though the likelihood of a nuke being used seems to be increasing. I thought it would never come to that, this would always remain a low level "operation," despite the death and misery, but it does seem like the west is hell-bent on forcing this to escalate, and Russia is hell-bent on fighting us no matter what. Might live to see a mushroom cloud over a city, though maybe not much longer after that.

[TTTX]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmQd1doR_R4&t

[Vol]

North Korea launched a missile over Hokkaido, Japan today. Locals were warned to take shelter, but it passed harmlessly overhead. Russia is moving one of their military units that handles nuclear weapons to the frontline, though it might be to rattle our spooks, though one of their state Twitter accounts put out a statement pointing out that the USA set the precedent for using nuclear weapons. Meanwhile their losses in Ukraine seem to be continuing.

Seems like China needs to make a big move for this shitshow to really kick off.

[TTTX]

well we are going to vote in november for a new prime minister and government, because our current one would have gotten a vote of no confidence otherwise by one of the other political parties.

stuff like this pretty much never happens in Danish politics, the last vote on no confidence on a Danish prime minister happened in 1947.

[Vol]

Are you Danes caught up in the right-wing swing, like in Sweden and Italy, or going the other way with it, like the bloodbath the Tories will probably be facing?

[TTTX]

Are you Danes caught up in the right-wing swing, like in Sweden and Italy, or going the other way with it, like the bloodbath the Tories will probably be facing?

as far as I know, not really.

even if it was the two main parties be it left or right pretty much support the EU and it's politics, so it probably wouldn't change much.

[Vol]

Every time I hear about Denmark, it sounds like what the stereotype of Sweden was when I was a kid. A calm, peaceful little place, where nothing much happens, and nobody is trying to change it.

In other news, at a DNC fundraiser, Biden said the "Armageddon" word, which got the journos in a tizzy. Seems like the US and our puppet state are hell bent on escalating to WW3. It's like our policymakers took a history course on WW2, and only remember half of it.

[TTTX]

Every time I hear about Denmark, it sounds like what the stereotype of Sweden was when I was a kid. A calm, peaceful little place, where nothing much happens, and nobody is trying to change it.

In other news, at a DNC fundraiser, Biden said the "Armageddon" word, which got the journos in a tizzy. Seems like the US and our puppet state are hell bent on escalating to WW3. It's like our policymakers took a history course on WW2, and only remember half of it.

not much reason to change it (we were one of the first to give women the vote, gay people have been able to marry since the 80's and we helped found NATO, we are small, but we are generally among the first when it comes to changes where it matters), although we do have problems like low birthrates and what.

When it comes to Biden I really wonder if he actually knows what year it is. I think the Americans should vote for some way younger presidential candidates, not people who are in their 70's and 80's, they feel way to out of touch with what is going on in the world and with the common man.

[Vol]

not much reason to change it (we were one of the first to give women the vote, gay people have been able to marry since the 80's and we helped found NATO, we are small, but we are generally among the first when it comes to changes where it matters), although we do have problems like low birthrates and what.

When it comes to Biden I really wonder if he actually knows what year it is. I think the Americans should vote for some way younger presidential candidates, not people who are in their 70's and 80's, they feel way to out of touch with what is going on in the world and with the common man.

The entire world, except for parts of Africa, has a problem with low birthrates. It's a self-correcting problem, the beliefs that led to it will be replaced by beliefs that are more fruitful, but it's going to suck for us to live through a time when there's not enough humans alive to fund and maintain all the nice things our ancestors built. South Korea will be the place to watch, they're below 1 child for every 2 adults. Rapidly westernizing was a poison pill, it seems. At least in Denmark, probably not the US, there is probably a better system for handling the future massive amounts of elderly people with no offspring.

Oh, he's clearly senile. It doesn't seem to matter. Next presidential election will be Trump vs Biden, unless something major happens. Trump will be...78 in 2024. After that, Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, is the expected heir for the 2028 election, and he's 44 right now, so 50 then. Whoever the Democrats run will have to be non-white, probably a woman, so it's impossible to guess. But you're right, our leaders in general are way too old. The Founding Fathers were largely in theirs _20s_ when they created this nation.

[TTTX]

The entire world, except for parts of Africa, has a problem with low birthrates. It's a self-correcting problem, the beliefs that led to it will be replaced by beliefs that are more fruitful, but it's going to suck for us to live through a time when there's not enough humans alive to fund and maintain all the nice things our ancestors built. South Korea will be the place to watch, they're below 1 child for every 2 adults. Rapidly westernizing was a poison pill, it seems. At least in Denmark, probably not the US, there is probably a better system for handling the future massive amounts of elderly people with no offspring.

Oh, he's clearly senile. It doesn't seem to matter. Next presidential election will be Trump vs Biden, unless something major happens. Trump will be...78 in 2024. After that, Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, is the expected heir for the 2028 election, and he's 44 right now, so 50 then. Whoever the Democrats run will have to be non-white, probably a woman, so it's impossible to guess. But you're right, our leaders in general are way too old. The Founding Fathers were largely in theirs _20s_ when they created this nation.

yep it is going to suck alright.

the senile old man vs the idiot old man, I get the feeling America is going to a giant headache to deal with no matter who wins.

[Vol]

War's escalating again. Ukraine bombs a bridge into Crimea, Russia responds with bombing all over Ukraine. Belarus appear poised to join the "special military operation," while I'm hearing trainloads of new Russian infantry are moving into their border...where Ukraine blew all the bridges. Meanwhile the US and NATO are doubling down on promising support to Ukraine, Putin is doubling down too, and the US Selective Service (military draft board) clarified that (some) illegals and transwomen are totally required to sign up for the draft.

Any word on the battle lines? Russian defenses still collapsing?

[Someone With Mass]

War's escalating again. Ukraine bombs a bridge into Crimea, Russia responds with bombing all over Ukraine. Belarus appear poised to join the "special military operation," while I'm hearing trainloads of new Russian infantry are moving into their border...where Ukraine blew all the bridges. Meanwhile the US and NATO are doubling down on promising support to Ukraine, Putin is doubling down too, and the US Selective Service (military draft board) clarified that (some) illegals and transwomen are totally required to sign up for the draft.

Any word on the battle lines? Russian defenses still collapsing?

The Ukrainian momentum has slowed, but they're still breaking through defensive lines and destroying plenty of Russian resources. It's been hinted that they've also gotten a new type of air-burst missile that shoots out 180k tungsten BB balls in an area about the size of a football field.

It won't matter how many ill-equipped infantrymen they'll throw at Ukraine when winter comes and the majority of them freezes to death because their oh so great country can't even supply them with bare necessities.´

If you want a more comprehensive picture: https://www.deepstatemap.live/en#6.75/49.574/31.924

Keep in mind that it's pretty much always outdated because of the sheer aggressiveness of the AFU.

[Mazder]

War's escalating again. Ukraine bombs a bridge into Crimea, Russia responds with bombing all over Ukraine. Belarus appear poised to join the "special military operation," while I'm hearing trainloads of new Russian infantry are moving into their border...where Ukraine blew all the bridges. Meanwhile the US and NATO are doubling down on promising support to Ukraine, Putin is doubling down too, and the US Selective Service (military draft board) clarified that (some) illegals and transwomen are totally required to sign up for the draft.

Any word on the battle lines? Russian defenses still collapsing?

The Ukrainian momentum has slowed, but they're still breaking through defensive lines and destroying plenty of Russian resources. It's been hinted that they've also gotten a new type of air-burst missile that shoots out 180k tungsten BB balls in an area about the size of a football field.

It won't matter how many ill-equipped infantrymen they'll throw at Ukraine when winter comes and the majority of them freezes to death because their oh so great country can't even supply them with bare necessities.´

If you want a more comprehensive picture: https://www.deepstatemap.live/en#6.75/49.574/31.924

Keep in mind that it's pretty much always outdated because of the sheer aggressiveness of the AFU.

Russian conscripts, sorry "partially mobilized reservists", don't even have enough socks. SOCKS! They're using sodding foot wraps.

[TTTX]

well nothing not like getting a big gas bill to get a heart attack.

I knew the price would increase, but holy hell we just one hell of a bill.

[Someone With Mass]

Let's see if the UN can actually do something for once.

[Mazder]

HA!
UN, doing something, HA

[Alienmorph]

So, our new government is putting togheter the ministries and the people in charge of the senate and parliament. Of the latter two, one of them is one of the biggest neo-fascists we have roaming the building and the other one of the biggest homophobes.

But it gets "better". In delightful twist of fate the latter of the two pricks today gave a speech, and the whole thing was about the importance of treasuring and protecting cultural and racial diversities... and it sounded EXACTLY like the same rethoric the ultra-left wingers spin on Twitter. Except it came from a guy who think that if you aren't white, straight and christian you aren't really a person, and was of course meant to be a "we need to protect the "normal" people" speech.

All extremists are the same, and they all suck. The only real difference is who they blame all the wrongs of the world on. I wholeheartedly believe that, now more than ever.

[Vol]

well nothing not like getting a big gas bill to get a heart attack.

I knew the price would increase, but holy hell we just one hell of a bill.

How bad was it? We're being told to expect 25% or so increases in the USA, but Europeans must have it way worse.

So, our new government is putting togheter the ministries and the people in charge of the senate and parliament. Of the latter two, one of them is one of the biggest neo-fascists we have roaming the building and the other one of the biggest homophobes.

But it gets "better". In delightful twist of fate the latter of the two pricks today gave a speech, and the whole thing was about the importance of treasuring and protecting cultural and racial diversities... and it sounded EXACTLY like the same rethoric the ultra-left wingers spin on Twitter. Except it came from a guy who think that if you aren't white, straight and christian you aren't really a person, and was of course meant to be a "we need to protect the "normal" people" speech.

All extremists are the same, and they all suck. The only real difference is who they blame all the wrongs of the world on. I wholeheartedly believe that, now more than ever.

Given I heard your new PM said something nice about Il Duce, this might be the only correct use of "fascist" in 70 years.

The end of liberalism isn't the worst thing. It worked for us for millennia. Granted, for *us*, who've known hyperindividualism and freedoms, it'll be painful and confining.

HA!
UN, doing something, HA

Hey, their ability to diddle African kids is unmatched.

Worryingly, a number of Russia's immediate allies have begun to evacuate their embassies in Ukraine. The possibility of a nuke being used increases, bit by bit.

[TTTX]

How bad was it? We're being told to expect 25% or so increases in the USA, but Europeans must have it way worse.

it was more then I get in pension and my pension is something I am suppose to live of for a month.

and we haven't turned on the heat yet.

[Someone With Mass]

Hey, their ability to diddle African kids is unmatched.

Worryingly, a number of Russia's immediate allies have begun to evacuate their embassies in Ukraine. The possibility of a nuke being used increases, bit by bit.

Nah. The US alone has outright promised that they'll flatten the Russian Black Sea military assets the conventional way if a nuke of any kind is used. Then again, Putin is so fucking stupid that he thinks he can sabotage Western infrastructure and get away with it, so anything's up in the air now.

Oh and Russia is buying short-range ballistic missiles from Iran because some single-digit IQ Ruskie thought it'd be a great idea to waste their arsenal of precision missiles on playgrounds and hospitals instead of military targets.

[TTTX]

Then again, Putin is so fucking stupid that he thinks he can sabotage Western infrastructure and get away with it, so anything's up in the air now.

perhaps, but the EU leaders are the ones who has put us in this situation by relying solely on russian gas without any back ups, Putin most likely will pay for it somewhat, but europe economy will still take one hell of a hit and probably a lot harder then Russia's economy have been hit these last few months.

the real question will the EU be able to handle the hit or will the USA have to bail the EU out just so the economy don't go into a recession?

although the US might also soon go into a recession considering the amount of money Biden is throwing into Ukraine, the inflation is high across the board in the west.

[Vol]

it was more then I get in pension and my pension is something I am suppose to live of for a month.

and we haven't turned on the heat yet.

Well, that's obviously impossible to live with. I hear the German government is going to spend billions of dollars (Euros) to pay for everyone's heating in the coldest parts of winter. Everyone else is going to have to do the same then, if energy costs are already _that high_ before the cold even arrives. Time to start chopping firewood.

Nah. The US alone has outright promised that they'll flatten the Russian Black Sea military assets the conventional way if a nuke of any kind is used. Then again, Putin is so fucking stupid that he thinks he can sabotage Western infrastructure and get away with it, so anything's up in the air now.

Oh and Russia is buying short-range ballistic missiles from Iran because some single-digit IQ Ruskie thought it'd be a great idea to waste their arsenal of precision missiles on playgrounds and hospitals instead of military targets.

Wow. Who said that? I've heard lots of politicians dancing around the topic, using flowery rhetoric to make their threats sound super-duper serious, but no one outright said, "We'll start a direct war with Russia if they use nukes."

Hearing the troop buildup in Belarus is moving ahead, so Ukraine is going to mobilize more men. I thought they'd already fully mobilized, especially with the offensive, so do they have untapped manpower reserves?

perhaps, but the EU leaders are the ones who has put us in this situation by relying solely on russian gas without any back ups, Putin most likely will pay for it somewhat, but europe economy will still take one hell of a hit and probably a lot harder then Russia's economy have been hit these last few months.

the real question will the EU be able to handle the hit or will the USA have to bail the EU out just so the economy don't go into a recession?

although the US might also soon go into a recession considering the amount of money Biden is throwing into Ukraine, the inflation is high across the board in the west.

The US is in a recession, but the government and the media conspired to redefine "recession" as something more subjective, because it kinda is. The US economy is held together by string and good will, and while we're, compared to you guys, not suffering nearly as bad, it's a very delicate house of cards that it works at all.

That said, our leadership is blowing endless billions on whatever they want. The inflation reduction act, for example, was a trillion dollars that's done nothing. Lots of pork barrel and embezzlement, and always money for war, at least. So if you guys need the US to pay some bills, supply some oil, we'll definitely find a way if our leadership can make money on it too.

[TTTX]

Well, that's obviously impossible to live with. I hear the German government is going to spend billions of dollars (Euros) to pay for everyone's heating in the coldest parts of winter. Everyone else is going to have to do the same then, if energy costs are already _that high_ before the cold even arrives. Time to start chopping firewood.

yeah, we have to look into that bill, it seems a bit fishy or a mistake has happened.

The US is in a recession, but the government and the media conspired to redefine "recession" as something more subjective, because it kinda is. The US economy is held together by string and good will, and while we're, compared to you guys, not suffering nearly as bad, it's a very delicate house of cards that it works at all.

That said, our leadership is blowing endless billions on whatever they want. The inflation reduction act, for example, was a trillion dollars that's done nothing. Lots of pork barrel and embezzlement, and always money for war, at least. So if you guys need the US to pay some bills, supply some oil, we'll definitely find a way if our leadership can make money on it too.

yeah and once the house of cards comes crashing down the entire world economy will pretty much come crashing down since the dollar is what holds the world economy together.

At the same time russia and china have been collecting natural resources so they have in reserves and not american dollars they seem a lot smarter then their western counterparts at least on that point.

[Someone With Mass]

Well, the Ukrainians are asking for another media blackout, so something big is about to happen near the Kherson Oblast.

[TTTX]

Well, the Ukrainians are asking for another media blackout, so something big is about to happen near the Kherson Oblast.

well a combat airplan crashed in some civilian homes in russia.

[Vol]

yeah and once the house of cards comes crashing down the entire world economy will pretty much come crashing down since the dollar is what holds the world economy together.

At the same time russia and china have been collecting natural resources so they have in reserves and not american dollars they seem a lot smarter then their western counterparts at least on that point.

Americans are very idealistic, and it bleeds into our policies, and eventually it bled into the greedy idiots who acquire power here. They might not know what they're doing, why it worked, or how to keep it working, but they sure have lots of idealism. Case in point, there's a large city in the South where the tap water is so polluted it is literally poison, cannot be boiled or filtered, because the man elected mayor there ran on a platform of idealism and a better future for everyone, but ended up failing to maintain the infrastructure because it's expensive and boring.

[TTTX]

Americans are very idealistic, and it bleeds into our policies, and eventually it bled into the greedy idiots who acquire power here. They might not know what they're doing, why it worked, or how to keep it working, but they sure have lots of idealism. Case in point, there's a large city in the South where the tap water is so polluted it is literally poison, cannot be boiled or filtered, because the man elected mayor there ran on a platform of idealism and a better future for everyone, but ended up failing to maintain the infrastructure because it's expensive and boring.

nothing like being full of yourself and make everyone life hell, because you are to incompetent to do your job, should be the american motto.

[Vol]

nothing like being full of yourself and make everyone life hell, because you are to incompetent to do your job, should be the american motto.

I recently heard someone say something to the effect of, "It seems like everything in America is designed with the premise that boring, competent, patriotic men will always exist to make sure everything works as it should." And if you think about any policy or government program, or even what private companies do, it makes a lot of sense. So long as dutiful programmers show up, LinkedIn can hire people who do shit all but wander around eating snacks and posting on social media all day. So long as men from a long line of soldiers sign up for combat duty and Special Forces, our military can take on 100+ people who won't. So on and so forth. But the fatal flaw is assuming those guys will always exist, because being full of yourself and too incompetent to do your job is very, very easy.

[Mazder]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Liz Truss has resigned!!
UK is such a Hell Island!

Leadership election in 2 weeks.
I am begging for a general election at this point as if there was Labour would have an absolute majority and the Opposition would be the SNP, the Torries would be DEAD

[Vol]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Liz Truss has resigned!!
UK is such a Hell Island!

Leadership election in 2 weeks.
I am begging for a general election at this point as if there was Labour would have an absolute majority and the Opposition would be the SNP, the Torries would be DEAD

They were talking about it on our talk radio all day too. Even brought up the Brit outlet that did the "will a head of lettuce last longer than her?" stunt. The lettuce won, to my mild surprise.

Also I heard she's eligible for a 6-figure pension for the rest of her life for waiting it out this long. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

[Mazder]

They were talking about it on our talk radio all day too. Even brought up the Brit outlet that did the "will a head of lettuce last longer than her?" stunt. The lettuce won, to my mild surprise.

Also I heard she's eligible for a 6-figure pension for the rest of her life for waiting it out this long. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

Yeah, our papers did it as a joke. Reality is often funnier than fiction it seems.

Now the real annoyance would be if MP's vote Boris back in. We know he's got support of at least 70 MP's in public. But he'd need 100 to get on the ballot. Currently he is the favourite at;
Boris Johnson - 48
Rishi Sunak - 33
Penny Mordaunt - 15

So if Boris can get the extra 22 recommendations he needs he'll be on the ballot. But he has been in talks with Rishi Sunak to collab with him, to bring back the "mid-covid stability" type of campaign. I hope that MP's remember it was that duo that put us into this mess with their entire cabinet resigning!

[Vol]

Well, Boris is out, couldn't get coalition support of however it works. Guess you're getting Rishi!

Funnily enough, was reading a political magazine as my toilet reading earlier, had an article on Truss. Pretty much outlined why her tenure was doomed to failure, so put a point on the board for at least one pol-sci major calling it correctly.

Otherwise, with the midterms approaching, GOP seems almost certain to take the House, and an increasingly good shot of the Senate too. As always, their polling improves the closer we get to an election. Might even be some major upsets, such as in the NY governor race. In practice, it doesn't matter too much, except that with a split Congress, both parties have to agree on how to embezzle money in the spending bills.

[Vol]

US midterm elections next week. In the vein of the right(ish) wing victories in all our countries, expectation as of now is the Republicans take the House, and a 50/50 on the Senate. And then in 2024, the Senate almost surely goes red, because of seats up for election then greatly favor them. Some unexpected races, like governor of NY and Washington, are neck and neck too. Too early to read the tea leaves based on registered early voters, but seems like the US government will do absolutely nothing of note for the next 2 years, which frankly is an improvement, because active malice is worse than passive malice.

[Vol]

Trump just blueballed America. Gave a last rally speech for the midterm candidates down in Ohio, did some riffing. Has his whole family there. Then at the end, swelling music comes on, he goes silent for a moment, then starts listing off all the ways America's declined in the last 2 years.

Then announces...he'll have a big announcement on the 15th, at his Florida club. Womp, womp. So he's running, but he's not saying the words until then, which is still not great, since even implying it before the midterms could only possibly help the Democrats.

Edit: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/early-e ... d=92762835

"Their leads will dwindle, or crumble completely, after perceived "dumps" of votes are recorded by state election officials who count mail-in and absentee ballots in the days -- or even weeks -- following Election Day."

"And it's likely to occur in some of the same states where the phenomenon presented itself last cycle -- in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin -- battleground states that also happen to feature some of the most hotly-contested races of the election season.

MORE: Midterm elections early voting updates: Turnout surpasses prior years
"All signs point to the fact that it's going to be extreme in certain critical states again, and Pennsylvania top among them," Lawrence Norden, senior director of the Brennan Center's Elections & Government Program said, noting that certain candidates may claim false victories or legally attempt to stop or slow vote counts."

[Vol]

Election day over in the colonies. Already a clown show. In Maricopa, yes that one, machines aren't working, so people are being told to either hang around until they're fixed, or drop their ballot in some box that'll be driven someplace else to be counted, or to go somewhere else. Remarkable how we're actively getting worse at something as simple as holding an election.

[Vol]

Polls are closed in the east. Good start for the GOP, too early to make any real estimates, but DeSantis and Rubio are reelected.

[Vol]

No red tsunami, except in Florida. Races are much tighter than the polls predicted for the House, which is really bizarre, while the Senate seems more likely to be swung to the GOP. The same places that had incredible problems counting votes last time are having problems this time, so lawsuits are going to fly. Otherwise, it's a very weird election so far.

[Vol]

Alright, so the usual incompetents will be counting for a few more days. Still no sure answers, seems *likely* the GOP will have a very small House majority and the Senate is still in the air.

Based on exit polling, the wild card this time was the youth vote, Gen Z, who break super hard for Democrats. Which makes sense, if you guys ever dip into normie Internet, it's pure propaganda for left-wing views, or at least not right-wing. Managed to get out the vote at unexpected levels, probably helped by emergency COVID measures that are now permanent in some places, Tik-tok generation blunted the wave.

[Sinekein]

No red tsunami, except in Florida. Races are much tighter than the polls predicted for the House, which is really bizarre, while the Senate seems more likely to be swung to the GOP. The same places that had incredible problems counting votes last time are having problems this time, so lawsuits are going to fly. Otherwise, it's a very weird election so far.

Alright, so the usual incompetents will be counting for a few more days. Still no sure answers, seems *likely* the GOP will have a very small House majority and the Senate is still in the air.

Alright, I was just having my trimestrial check on that forum, might as well chime in.

Even though I strongly disagree with you on many issues, you seem like a reasonable guy Vol, so it kind of pains me to see you parroting some of the most asinine arguments the GOP is having regarding elections.

I won't even talk about whether abortion is good or bad or whether firearms should be more strictly controlled or not, I will only talk about "the form" of the elections. Since Trump became a major GOP figure, he has always claimed that he was in a better position that he actually was, even though it happened exactly one time - in 2016. Since then, overestimating (and grossly, I would say) everything has been his motto, and it has been embraced by a large part of the GOP.

So no, it is not "really bizarre" to see tight results. The GOP getting a slight house lead and the Dems keeping the Senate has basically been written all over for months. The thing with polls is that good polling institutes learn from their mistakes. In 2016, they clearly made mistakes underestimating Trump...but they have since analyzed those mistakes, and are now more accurate regarding the specifics of the current GOP demographics. Even though the GOP has slightly improved its chances in the last few weeks, the supposed "red wave" was really just a wish, not something that was materializing in any significant way. It is a classic case of people believing their own hype.

Plus, you do mention that indeed, this time the mistake leans D because pollsters underestimated young voter turnout. This will be adjusted in 2024.

Based on exit polling, the wild card this time was the youth vote, Gen Z, who break super hard for Democrats. Which makes sense, if you guys ever dip into normie Internet, it's pure propaganda for left-wing views, or at least not right-wing. Managed to get out the vote at unexpected levels, probably helped by emergency COVID measures that are now permanent in some places, Tik-tok generation blunted the wave.

You should really blame Trump for that, not "the internet" or "the mainstream media". Since Jan 6 Trump has basically been trampling the very principle of the peaceful transition of power in a democracy. It is highly repulsive for many educated people, even some who are moderates or might even lean conservative. And he has brute-forced many yes-men as candidates which haven't really fared that well - moderate republicans would probably have cruised in Pennsylvania or Georgia.

Plus, regarding Gen Z :
- It is a climate-conscious generation. Most of them are not hardcore ecologists, but Trump is still a leading skeptic regarding climate change, so that does not help at all getting the youth to support him.
- It is a generation that is struggling financially compared to their parents and (even more) grandparents. The GOP has always been focused on preserving the "American Way of Life"...which Gen Z is unlikely to ever experience.

Aside from that last point, those are issues that are Trump-related. Which is why I think the worst news for the GOP recently is that Trump seems adamant on ruining DeSantis' life because he sees him as a rival, even though RDS looks like the best candidate for 2024 for the GOP by a country mile - he has similar ideas but manages to express them without angering the left nearly as much as Trump does.

[Vol]

Alright, I was just having my trimestrial check on that forum, might as well chime in.

Even though I strongly disagree with you on many issues, you seem like a reasonable guy Vol, so it kind of pains me to see you parroting some of the most asinine arguments the GOP is having regarding elections.

Always nice to see you, it's good for me to be challenged on my views. I assume France is facing the same hard winter the rest of us are, so I hope you, and everyone, can weather it well.

So no, it is not "really bizarre" to see tight results. The GOP getting a slight house lead and the Dems keeping the Senate has basically been written all over for months. The thing with polls is that good polling institutes learn from their mistakes. In 2016, they clearly made mistakes underestimating Trump...but they have since analyzed those mistakes, and are now more accurate regarding the specifics of the current GOP demographics. Even though the GOP has slightly improved its chances in the last few weeks, the supposed "red wave" was really just a wish, not something that was materializing in any significant way. It is a classic case of people believing their own hype.

Plus, you do mention that indeed, this time the mistake leans D because pollsters underestimated young voter turnout. This will be adjusted in 2024.

"Really bizarre" in the sense of appealing to the premise that candidates and performance matters to an election. Deeply unpopular president, widespread perception of poor direction for the country and a bad economy, midterms usually swing back, etc. In the sense that pollsters can aggregate data really well, and make predictions on past trends, yeah, they were more or less in the wheelhouse, slightly over-estimating the GOP, because of the underestimated youth turnout. Nate Silver was pretty spot on, coin flip on the Senate, which appears to have just been called as Dem controlled, and the House is likely to go GOP, but by very slim margins.

I suppose the way I think of it is that if pollsters are able to accurately predict electoral outcomes, based on the demographics of the people voting, then the conclusion is that democracy is irrelevant nonsense. There is no competition of ideas, or swaying minds, and very little else matters, except party affiliation, and that makes the process pointless.

You should really blame Trump for that, not "the internet" or "the mainstream media". Since Jan 6 Trump has basically been trampling the very principle of the peaceful transition of power in a democracy. It is highly repulsive for many educated people, even some who are moderates or might even lean conservative. And he has brute-forced many yes-men as candidates which haven't really fared that well - moderate republicans would probably have cruised in Pennsylvania or Georgia.

How do you measure the effect of a candidate's quality on the outcome versus the effectiveness of the party machine? Dems hit solid gold with the COVID special voting measures, which were then codified. Mail in ballots are a godsend for their almost entirely urban base. Loosened restrictions on harvesting, depositing, their enormous advantage in messaging, in PA, a literal dead man won his election, and then Fetterman too. Oz was as moderate as you get, though not seen as a true local, among other things, but when up against _dead people_ and the (hopefully temporarily) mentally handicapped, to have to try at all is ridiculous. It shouldn't be a question.

- It is a generation that is struggling financially compared to their parents and (even more) grandparents. The GOP has always been focused on preserving the "American Way of Life"...which Gen Z is unlikely to ever experience.

Aside from that last point, those are issues that are Trump-related. Which is why I think the worst news for the GOP recently is that Trump seems adamant on ruining DeSantis' life because he sees him as a rival, even though RDS looks like the best candidate for 2024 for the GOP by a country mile - he has similar ideas but manages to express them without angering the left nearly as much as Trump does.

I was thinking about that earlier. Namely, how married and unmarried men, and married women, all broke to the right, while unmarried women went overwhelmingly to the left. Then the adage that, "as you get older, you become more conservative." That presumption is true, if you have reasons to want to uphold the status quo. Such as owning assets. Having a family. Those make you desire stability. Whereas, if we're to be a generation of renters, incapable of forming families (for many reasons), and staring down the barrel of multiple guns, what possible pitch does the GOP have if you're not lucky enough to have a reasonable shot at the old dream?

Which is why I think the GOP would need to become even more ideological, eschew the dead Americana, and try to incite that religious fervor that the Democrats have nailed. "You'll maybe get kinda rich and enjoy nice things" isn't as likely to drive passion as an earnest belief you're in some existential struggle with the forces of evil, and that's basically what the Dems were messaging in the last week. It works.

The moment DeSantis wins the nomination, he becomes worse than Trump, because he's smarter and more controlled, and we all know it. He becomes Hitler overnight, racist, sexist, transphobic, and scandals will materialize ex nihilo. DeSantis will be savaged, and the question is really how well he can take it. Though if Trump announces, which he appears to be doing on the 15th, DeSantis will wait until '28, and secure his shot.

[Sinekein]

Always nice to see you, it's good for me to be challenged on my views. I assume France is facing the same hard winter the rest of us are, so I hope you, and everyone, can weather it well.

Warmest October in history, so not really so far.

"Really bizarre" in the sense of appealing to the premise that candidates and performance matters to an election. Deeply unpopular president, widespread perception of poor direction for the country and a bad economy, midterms usually swing back, etc. In the sense that pollsters can aggregate data really well, and make predictions on past trends, yeah, they were more or less in the wheelhouse, slightly over-estimating the GOP, because of the underestimated youth turnout. Nate Silver was pretty spot on, coin flip on the Senate, which appears to have just been called as Dem controlled, and the House is likely to go GOP, but by very slim margins.

I suppose the way I think of it is that if pollsters are able to accurately predict electoral outcomes, based on the demographics of the people voting, then the conclusion is that democracy is irrelevant nonsense. There is no competition of ideas, or swaying minds, and very little else matters, except party affiliation, and that makes the process pointless.

This one is pretty simple. For two reasons:
- Historically, president popularity and economy performance were what undecided voters used to pick their candidate. But those undecided represent a much, much smaller part of the electorate after the last decade of U.S. Politics - tea party, Trump, "the Squad", etc. It's super polarized, the GOP is much more on the right than before, the Dems are much more on the left than before, so you have way fewer voters that can cross the bridge between two elections (no matter in which direction).
- So that leaves voter turnout as the main reason one party succeeds more than the other. And you are right, an unpopular president and a struggling economy should have been bad news for the Dems if A/the Supreme Court was not the most right-wing it ever was and didn't repel Roe v Wade which riled Democratic voters up and B/Trump just stopped leading the GOP, as he is so universally hated on the left that many (like they did in 2020 already) will vote against him more than for whoever the Dems offer.

And those two reasons (Roe v Wade & Trump) are entirely on the GOP. They are the ones that have been pushing the anti-abortion agenda for decades now, it was obvious once it would pass single-issue voters that were supporting them wouldn't bother as much AND those who opposed it on the other side would be highly motivated. As for Trump, they put him in charge and many of them became sycophants to keep their position instead of trying to oppose him - so obviously, it's much harder now for them to get rid of him since they all but enabled him to stay relevant after his 2020 defeat.

But that last part is also about the extreme polarization of U.S. Politics at the moment. I won't expand on that, I assume each side sees the other one as being responsible for it. But I really think the GOP is moving away from the center much faster than the Dems, at least when it comes to who is in charge or the most influential. Biden is a moderate, Trump is not - and he has done everything in his power to silence or subdue the moderate republicans (and mostly succeeded because his base loves him so much).

How do you measure the effect of a candidate's quality on the outcome versus the effectiveness of the party machine? Dems hit solid gold with the COVID special voting measures, which were then codified. Mail in ballots are a godsend for their almost entirely urban base. Loosened restrictions on harvesting, depositing, their enormous advantage in messaging, in PA, a literal dead man won his election, and then Fetterman too. Oz was as moderate as you get, though not seen as a true local, among other things, but when up against _dead people_ and the (hopefully temporarily) mentally handicapped, to have to try at all is ridiculous. It shouldn't be a question.

I mean...everyone gets a vote in a democracy. Allowing some people to do that more easily should never be a partisan issue.

The U.S. already have one of the most ludicrously stupid voting systems by doing that on a TUESDAY. While people are WORKING - and it's not like all employers in the country are required to give their employees a day off, right? So anything that makes people not having to miss days of work to vote should be seen as a positive by absolutely every politician in existence. If your plan to win an election is not "I will convince more people that I am the right candidate", but "I will stop as many people who oppose me from voting", then you are not in a democracy.

And the GOP has been much more guilty of that than the Democrats. Which means that all this time they spent not bothering with some minorities because it was simpler to just make them not vote too much, they have pandered towards other voters. And now, they are faced with the fact that they can't stop people from voting anymore, and they are much further away from positions that could make them expand their electorate.

It is a political strategy that has backfired. They can either double down on it and cry foul, or try to analyze it. They clearly are doing the former at the moment, but, again, once Trump leaves nothing will stop them from smoothing things over.

I mean, let's take the Black electorate. It is seen as super Dem, and is the prime target of voter suppression in the country. But if a GOP candidate came and really toned down the Blue Lives Matter talks in the party line, what would stop black people from voting GOP? A large majority of them are not really swayed by woke arguments.

Basically, it's not impossible for the GOP to change that tendency, but at the moment they are making it harder and harder with each passing day.

I was thinking about that earlier. Namely, how married and unmarried men, and married women, all broke to the right, while unmarried women went overwhelmingly to the left. Then the adage that, "as you get older, you become more conservative." That presumption is true, if you have reasons to want to uphold the status quo. Such as owning assets. Having a family. Those make you desire stability. Whereas, if we're to be a generation of renters, incapable of forming families (for many reasons), and staring down the barrel of multiple guns, what possible pitch does the GOP have if you're not lucky enough to have a reasonable shot at the old dream?

Honestly, economic lines have become blurred between the parties as of recently. The quintessential blue state is California which is both super woke/progressive and home to some of the biggest Evil Inc. companies in the world. And the Dems at the moment are really missing an opportunity to show they care about blue collars and poor people - mostly because they are losing that vote - and by focusing on social issues. So even if it's not as shiny as the American Dream, the GOP promising better days for people who are struggling might be both realistic and enticing for the younger generations who already know they will not experience the abundance of their parents (and don't necessarily want to - consumerism is not at an all-time high when it comes to popularity, especially in the youth).

But selling 1950s America is just a pipe dream that's going to become less and less believable as time passes. And indeed, if no one in the GOP realizes it, they will have more and more trouble getting in charge.

Which is why I think the GOP would need to become even more ideological, eschew the dead Americana, and try to incite that religious fervor that the Democrats have nailed. "You'll maybe get kinda rich and enjoy nice things" isn't as likely to drive passion as an earnest belief you're in some existential struggle with the forces of evil, and that's basically what the Dems were messaging in the last week. It works.

Yes. But it's hard to do with Biden as a boogeyman. Even Obama was really mild. Trump though is so easy to hate for a number of reasons that it makes it very easy to mobilize your troops come election time.

But that's a double-edged sword. If Trump gets kicked out by the GOP, you won't see that fervor anymore. If a GOP politician has a plan, there's nothing that says he won't win big.

The moment DeSantis wins the nomination, he becomes worse than Trump, because he's smarter and more controlled, and we all know it. He becomes Hitler overnight, racist, sexist, transphobic, and scandals will materialize ex nihilo. DeSantis will be savaged, and the question is really how well he can take it. Though if Trump announces, which he appears to be doing on the 15th, DeSantis will wait until '28, and secure his shot.

I mean, par for the course in the era of Twitter. Biden too went from a clumsy non-entity to all sorts of bad things when he became the Dem candidate - but it was not as bad as Trump by a long shot because, well, no matter what you think of him, he does not go out of his way to mock, insult or disrespect people (in the US or overseas) on a daily basis. Trump did that on Twitter. Also, there's the whole "not respecting the peaceful transition of power" bit which is extremely motivating for people who oppose you. Hell, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil was more gracious in defeat than Trump.

De Santis will be disliked by the left, especially the uni left since he specifically targets woke issues, but he will not be hated nearly as much as Trump was (unless of course he behaves like him), and he will not rile Dem voters up as much as Trump did in the last 6 years.

If Trump is candidate again though, oh boy. It will be the same as 2020, except that he will be the sore loser of the election. I really don't see it ending any better than it did in 2020...and if somehow it does, I don't see the US ever getting back up from that, because he will have proven you can disrespect the rules of the election, refuse to peacefully leave your place, send some rabid idiots to threaten the Congress, and still be re-elected. That's textbook banana republic stuff.