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Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

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TTTX
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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby TTTX » March 4th, 2022, 11:50 am

FrozenShadow wrote:
Basically, if Ukraine wins, we might soon see the first openly nazi-esque fascist government in the Europe, since Nazi Germany. Though the ironic part is that, if this do happen, it's actually totally Russia fault as they will have created it by attacking Ukraine. Basically, Russia might have end up creating the very thing they tried to prevent happening in the first place.

Well Hitler rise to power was in part because of the Sovjet Union and the failed social revolutions that happened around so it wouldn't be the first time.
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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Someone With Mass » March 4th, 2022, 11:53 am

FrozenShadow wrote:
In Russia, they just kept a brainwashing internet class to all students of how the situation in Ukraine is just "special operation" with heading for the class being "Peace keepers/Peace defenders". Military historian Pjotr Iskhov explained to a students, how Russia is not hitting homes or civilian targets (def not schools) and how they force peace on Ukraine so that they could not raise against Russia or remove worldwide threat at the same time. They also repeated again how this whole "special operation" is about demilitarization and de-nazification. This class also taught student of how to spot Fake news (basically everything else is false, but state approved media).

Second news is that State Duma and Federation Council have passed new laws, which are supposed to support "special operations in Ukraine". New law says that "Spreading purposely wrong information about Russia military and its action" can give you 15 years in prison at most. The interesting part is that it will affect every citizen of every nation, not just Russians. Aleksandr Hinshtein (director of State Dumas information and technology committee) says that foreign citizen are in their home countries, this law will not affect them. But as "grand offences" have long expiration date, chance for prosecution might stay for a long time.


There are Russian families that don't even know that their son/father is off invading another country. All they've been told is that they're doing a training exercise. It's what happens when the media is being controlled by the state.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kELta9MLOzg&ab_channel=RadioFreeEurope%2FRadioLiberty
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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby FrozenShadow » March 4th, 2022, 1:37 pm

Oh, relating to my previous post about the new laws about to be passed in Russia.... they might be even more horrible than I first thought.

As it seems to that law might work as 'ex post facto law'. In other words, it might allow people get punished even from words and action they have already done. So, all the protesters on Russia with signed "stop the war" might get minimum 3 years of prison time that simple action. Even worse, as this law is now about all citizens of any nationality on Russia, this law will certainly work on any area/country that Russia will occupy too, so lots of Ukrainian just got prison sentence and they don't even know yet.

But wait, it gets even more horrible. With this law, every single tweet, FB message, instagram picture/comment or any other social media action that in anyway spreads "lies" about Russian military and it's action could now be seen as "criminal" offense and get you prison time for 15 years. So, now every single Russian and citizen of any other country are unknowingly carrying "proof of their crimes" in their phones.

And because everything that's posted on social media can be found somehow from the internet, everyone who has in anyway posted anything on social media about war between Russia and Ukraine are now technically guilty of breaking this law and can get several years of prison. Hell, you might even end up getting 15 years prison time ten years in the future, if your "crime" grave enough.

I guess this is Russian new way to get rid sanction. Get so many prisoners, so that you can use them as a slave labor to build and farmlands.

Russian twitter probably have new slogan now. "Buy nice phone, tweet something and have nice 15 years long career in outside work."

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 4th, 2022, 2:32 pm

FrozenShadow wrote:And can you guess, what are the few countries that have systematically vote "No" over the years.......United States and Ukraine.


Depending on specifically what that UN thing entailed, we would literally have to amend our constitution to make that legal here. You can't just outlaw ideologies because of right to free speech and assembly. If the group actually does something illegal (like drug trafficking and whatnot as many such groups do) you can go after them for that. But you cannot ban a group or club simply for its ideology.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby FrozenShadow » March 4th, 2022, 2:42 pm

Ragabul wrote:
FrozenShadow wrote:And can you guess, what are the few countries that have systematically vote "No" over the years.......United States and Ukraine.


Depending on specifically what that UN thing entailed, we would literally have to amend our constitution to make that legal here. You can't just outlaw ideologies because of right to free speech and assembly. If the group actually does something illegal (like drug trafficking and whatnot as many such groups do) you can go after them for that. But you cannot ban a group or club simply for its ideology.


Hmm, that's a good point. Though it's also two edged sword. As long as neo-nazis are allowed to openly work and spread their ideology, it can cause problem. But I guess that's part of democracy and free-speech. You need to allow many different parties or ideologies to exist and hope they won't become a issue at some point.
---------------------------------

Completely unrelated note. What are guys thinking of this new digital ID that World Economic Forum is planning to introduce?

To my it seems to be something that might cause more harm than good, especially if its made mandatory.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 4th, 2022, 3:38 pm

I think a World ID would turn into a horror factory.

That being said, being stateless puts people in a position of profound vulnerability. Think of German Jews who are stripped of their citizenship in Nazi Germany. The German government doesn't want them and yet no one else wants them either because other countries consider them German. Thus they have no rights at all because rights are tied to citizenship and governments. People can do whatever they want to them and face no censure or punishment. (Human rights are made up and make no sense if you don't believe in natural law). I'd like some way to address this problem, but honestly can't think of any that wouldn't be massively abused by economic migrants claiming fake refugee status.

There's a fundamental difference between "I must cross this border or I will be murdered" and "I want to cross this border because people on the other side make more money" but it's hard to sort them out.
Last edited by Ragabul on March 4th, 2022, 3:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby FrozenShadow » March 4th, 2022, 3:56 pm

Ragabul wrote:I think a World ID would turn into a horror factory.

That being said, being stateless puts people in a position of profound vulnerability. Think of German Jews who are stripped of their citizenship in Nazi Germany. The German government doesn't want them and yet no one else wants them either because other countries consider them German. Thus they have no rights at all because rights are tied to citizenship and governments. People can do whatever they want to them and face no censure or punishment. (Human rights are made up and make no sense if you don't believe in natural law). I'd like some way to address this problem, but honestly can't think of any that wouldn't be massively abused by economic migrants claiming fake refugee status.


Indeed. While this system could be used for good, sad part is that the very human nature makes it so that this system will be used for EVIL and misery. This system will be used to make worldwide über police state. Everyone is under constant survaillence, you can even sleep or go to take a crap without someone knowing Internet of Bodies (IoB) function in it. Not only that, but I fear this system would make Indians caste system look like children game. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised, if this system would make Squid Game serie from Netflix are reality. As with this this system, there would be plenty of "social pariahs" and poor people to be used as entertainment for the rich.

Just too bad that human nature is so damn ugly and selfish.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Mobius_118 » March 4th, 2022, 5:40 pm

Guess I'm not gonna visit Russia, then. Shame, too, I always wanted to visit St. Petersburg.
"So you walk eternally through the shadow realms, standing against evil where all others falter. May your thirst for retribution never quench, may the blood on your sword never dry, and may we never need you again" Corrax Entry 7:17

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Vol » March 4th, 2022, 7:21 pm

Seeing the list of giant companies refusing to do business with Russia anymore is making me jealous. Wish they'd depart from America too.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 4th, 2022, 7:22 pm

Mobius_118 wrote:Guess I'm not gonna visit Russia, then. Shame, too, I always wanted to visit St. Petersburg.


Have actually been thinking this exact same thing believe it or not. It was probably the city in Europe I most wanted to see.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Vol » March 4th, 2022, 11:12 pm

Ragabul wrote:And why wouldn't some of the ambivalent (like me) in the 15% not also produce some? In what society with low birth rates is the need for more children actually materially acute and unavoidable by any means but producing more children?

As I do not possess a uterus, I can only guess, but I imagine for the "bog-standard American woman," it's fear of the process and birthing, economic concern, responsibility of committing to a minimum 18 years of parenting, lessening of lifestyle options, noncommittal towards male partner, and no practical need with American social services & faux hyper-individuality. Less charitably, vanity and hedonism too.

The material acuteness of the need for more bodies is not apparent until decades past the point where a generation could have done something about it. There is no possible need for more (native) children that could exist that would overcome the productive arrangement of women spending their latent maternal energies on pets and their career. To be hyperbolic, if all westernized woman stopped having children outright, flatlined replacement rate, there still would not be a top-down and bottom-up mass movement, with real social pressure. Any other recourse would come first. The nature of the beast is not human flourishing, that's incidental to sustaining a socio-economic paradigm that cares not from where chattel flows.

So as someone in that 15%, would could reasonably compel you to have 5 kids for America?

FrozenShadow wrote:Completely unrelated note. What are guys thinking of this new digital ID that World Economic Forum is planning to introduce?

To my it seems to be something that might cause more harm than good, especially if its made mandatory.

No good can come from it and it must be resisted with violence.

More seriously, I haven't heard about this, but I can take a guess, and it's a terrible idea that will lead to terrible consequences, but it will seem so reasonable at every step of the way.

TTTX wrote:Well Hitler rise to power was in part because of the Sovjet Union and the failed social revolutions that happened around so it wouldn't be the first time.

It's like poetry, it rhymes. Though I can't imagine Ukranian Nazis have at all the same philosophical concepts as the originals did. A pale imitation at best. E.g., they'd be dumber, more brutal, and get taken out faster.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 4th, 2022, 11:55 pm

Vol wrote:So as someone in that 15%, would could reasonably compel you to have 5 kids for America?


Why are 5 needed? Again, replacement rate is 2.1% and historical population growth rate was 1% or less. Main reason we don't have kids is actually Theo doesn't want them. I am merely ambivalent. If he wanted them I wouldn't be hard to persuade to have 2ish. I could probably be persuaded to have more than 2 if free range parenting was still the norm and I wouldn't get arrested for it and it wasn't necessary for kids to go to college/apprenticeship/trade school/whatever to have a non shit standard of living. Getting 2ish through all the coddling and expensive training that's demanded today is all I could realistically do. The only way to avoid this so far as I can tell would be to move to the country (almost no decent paying jobs) and homeschool (can't do this and also work and I promise I'm not working for "career" but because I like food and not sleeping in the rain).

The two main points of worry I would have if we decided to have them:

Insurance is *really* expensive. Like *really* fucking expensive. Paying for insurance for a family would take me from financially secure to "a random flat tire is a horrible emergency and we all have to eat rice for a month to pay for it."

Higher than average chance of having a kid with some not great severe mental health problem that means I'm not just signing up for 18 years but *forever.* Haven't mentioned this before because it's not something I want cookies for or whatever but I got diagnosed with high functioning autism last year after going for curiosity sake. What would have once upon a time been considered Aspergers. Niece has a more severe, rare manifestation of it called PDA. Dad has ADHD. Sister and nephew have ADHD. Severe depression runs in the family. Severe substance abuse runs in the family. I did not get good psych genes. I'm really lucky in that I am merely super weird and don't really have any emotional or behavioral issues, but there's 0 guarantee a kid of mine won't get a really crappy draw. (Theo's family has grab bag of psych stuff too. There's actually strong evidence for assortative mating of weirdos in general I would say).

Things that would pretty much eliminate my hesitation would be cheaper healthcare, better prenatal screening, and space for something besides helicopter parent model.

Answers to this are idiosyncratic which is why there is no magical government program that produces a massive birthrate increase. *Need* is the only thing that will do it across the board.

*Edit*

Also it's not just Western women. The global birth rate is dropping. I mean for god's sake *Iran* has a birth rate of around 2.1%. It's not a Western culture thing specifically. It's a modernity thing.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby TTTX » March 5th, 2022, 3:55 am

Vol wrote:It's like poetry, it rhymes. Though I can't imagine Ukranian Nazis have at all the same philosophical concepts as the originals did. A pale imitation at best. E.g., they'd be dumber, more brutal, and get taken out faster.

not to mention a lot of people didn't understand what the nazi really was about, sure they were racist but well so was the rest of Europe at the time and well some of the stuff the nazis did wasn't a new thing again America and Europa did similar things to minorities or in their colonies.

so these new nazi won't have much in terms of allies or business partners.
the post is over, stop reading and move on.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Mazder » March 5th, 2022, 5:15 am

Crosspoting this from the books thread:
Ragabul wrote:Kinda politics. Kinda books. Kinda neither. The above and the world situation made me think of this C. S. Lewis quote which is just a good one:

"This is the first point to be made: and the first action to be taken is to pull ourselves together. If we are all going to be destroyed by an atomic bomb, let that bomb when it comes find us doing sensible and human things—praying, working, teaching, reading, listening to music, bathing the children, playing tennis, chatting to our friends over a pint and a game of darts—not huddled together like frightened sheep and thinking about bombs. They may break our bodies (a microbe can do that) but they need not dominate our minds."


I 100% know what that quote feels.
When Russia was attacking that Nuclear plant the other day my friend was freaking the fuck out about it.
Me?
I went to bed.

If a disaster similar to Chernobyl were to happen there would have been nothing I could do about it so worrying about it was a waste of time.
I was interested and kept myself informed, of course, but I didn't worry like he did, staying up most of the night watching the livestream from the plant like an idiot.

I have come to the conclusion that if nuclear war breaks out then I am dead already. If I am not hit by a bomb locally then the fallout will kill the human race, and by definition me, so if nuclear war breaks out I have died so no reason to worry about it.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Sinekein » March 7th, 2022, 3:44 pm

I don't particularly care about the topic of the stock market, but Jon Stewart (that one) did an AMA on reddit today on that topic after he did a segment on it on his new show. I think his POV is fairly interesting especially given the current states of American politics.

As in, it's pretty obvious which side Stewart is from, but I am pretty sure a number of conservatives could very well agree with his statements. Not libertarians, of course, but I assume you can be socially conservative and yet not support having your economy ran by a dramatically small number of powerful people who ensure wealth only goes up and not down.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 7th, 2022, 6:08 pm

TLDR Stocks & taxes WoT. Ignore at leisure. Also disclaimer that I know *some* about stocks but it's far from one of my pet topics so my margin of error here is higher. Key points: Yes, reinstate Glass-Steagall. Yes, have total or near total income tax on incomes above about 200K. Yes, have much more strenuous capital income tax for capital that is uselessly sitting around not being used. No to regressive property taxes.

0 issue with his Glass-Steagall fetishism. This is basically my position as well. This used to be the rule after the depression and it was overturned under Bill Clinton. Dodd-Frank under Obama undid some of the market liberalization of the 90s, but it never reinstated Glass-Steagall.

Under Glass-Steagall an investment bank and a plain old "this is a bank that people go to for car loans" were separated entities. Put simply it limits the kinds of financial gambling banks can do with "normal" people's money. If a bank wants to be an investment bank, it must gamble with money of actual investors in the bank and not with money from "normal" accounts. This helps prevent banks from wiping out personal savings from dodgy stock market gambling.

However, there's nothing here that would stop on investment bank from becoming so ginormous that its collapse wouldn't still have a huge effect on the economy. And there's also nothing to stop people from becoming bajillionaires through investing.

Also totally on board with a total or near total income tax over something like 200,000K as I've already said. We also need a stiffer tax on non residential property capital income (not just capital gains but actual income from capital). Most capital gains taxes I see put forward only apply when capital is sold. For example, say I have a portfolio of stocks I bought in 1975 and this has been accruing in value ever since. It goes up in value by 5% a year. With a capital gains tax, as long as I don't sell these, I pay zero taxes on them. This is pretty fair when it's grandma's retirement fund and is the basic idea behind a 401K. That money is not subjected to income tax. It is taxed when it is drawn out at a later date in retirement. In theory, grandma is going to use up her whole 401K in retirement and thus none of her income escapes taxation. (There is also another thing called a Roth IRA which I use which is that in return for paying taxes *now,* I don't pay taxes when I take the money out in retirement).

It's less fair with a bajillionaire because he is realistically never going to liquefy all his capital. He will sell some to buy a mansion or a yacht or whatever and that will get taxed. He may even give some of it away tax free to various good causes. But the vast bulk of it is just going to sit there accruing interest year after year after, untaxed and also functionally useless. (Investment *can* be useful. You do actually want entrepreneurs. There is truth to this libertarian idea. Like him or hate him, it is a good thing that Elon Musk is investing a ton of money in building better batteries and rockets and whatnot. You do not want to crush this kind of activity with taxation. A huge pile of Apple's money sitting in Ireland accruing interest meanwhile is functionally useless). So in other words, capital sitting there uselessly doing nothing but generating unused income should see that income taxed heavily while capital income used *usefully* like Bill Gates spending lots of money for public health in Africa or whatnot should be taxed way less. This both disincentivizes the unending accumulation of capital and grotesque wealth inequality but maintains some autonomy for what wealthy people can do with their wealth and thus does not completely undermine entrepreneurialism.

We currently do something like this with property taxes, which is highly regressive. I don't just pay taxes on my house when I sell it. I pay taxes on the market value of the house every year. So even if I never sell my house and I own it mostly for my own security in retirement, I have to pay taxes on whatever its increase in market value was for that year. I'm taxed as if this was income when functionally it *isn't* income because I never get anything beyond the house itself and I'm never going to sell it. Obviously homeowners should have to pay infrastructure use type taxes/fees (so for stuff like garbage collection, sewer, water, the city maintaining the sidewalks, police & fire, etc. In Houston we have what's called MUD taxes, which is basically homeowners paying taxes for flood control measures the government built to protect their houses). But the market value of the house doesn't actually correspond directly to how much a given homeowner is "using" infrastructure. I put *way* less strain on infrastructure than a family of 5 down the street even though my house may be worth more. Grandma in her house in retirement is putting negligible strain on infrastructure and yet her property taxes just keep increasing higher than inflation. I think property taxes should be based on this infrastructure stuff and not on market value. How much am *I* specifically use in city services.

Certainly, it's fair to tax mansions, houses owned by house-flippers, and so on at much higher rates. I'd say you would need to claim homestead status (meaning this house is the house you live in and not just own; you can only have homestead status on 1 house). Also anything above a certain acreage or square footage should be taxed at market value. Generally, I'm wildly supportive of Texas homestead laws which are among the most strenuous in the country. The *only* debt for which your house can be seized in Texas is failure to pay property taxes or your mortgage. In other words, it does not matter how much I owe on credit cards, medical debt, or whatever, so long as I pay my property tax and mortgage, none of these can take my house to pay off that debt. I feel like that should be the norm everywhere.

*Edit* the easiest way to prevent permanent class stratification is probably for a near 100% inheritance tax for all capital over a certain amount. Even this would not be perfect though and would not stop a specific person from becoming a bajillionaire in his lifetime. It would just mean his fortune is dissipated upon his death. It also doesn't stop him from transferring it to his heirs when he is still alive, which is why you cannot escape the need to tax capital income directly.

*Edit* What people think should be done on stuff like this is heavily based on first principles. Namely, is inequality in an of itself an issue or is it the *kind* of inequality? I say it's the *kind* of inequality, not inequality itself. Also, is the problem that certain people are too rich or that certain people are too poor? I think it's both, but that if you can address the "too poor" part while still having bajillionaires, it's gross but not terribly important that bajillionaires still exist. The existence of rich people is not the issue. It's the potential for a *hereditary* class of rich people that's the issue. "Prevent bajillionaires" is largely an aesthetic position. I could shoot every single billionaire on Earth in the head as soon as they became a billionaire, and it would not fundamentally change much of anything.


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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Vol » March 8th, 2022, 2:45 pm

Ragabul wrote:*lil Ragas*
Things that would pretty much eliminate my hesitation would be cheaper healthcare, better prenatal screening, and space for something besides helicopter parent model.

Well, fair enough. That is a reasonable perspective to have. Even if life does not work out that way, having the perspective that, at the least, a couple providing replacements for themselves is an objective good seems more healthy than a default of zero with a cost-benefit analysis applied over it. I don't know what is or isn't heritable in my blood, but in my fantasy ideal, there would be very large family, to provide lifelong support structures for each other, as well as providing internal pressure to balance the crushing external pressure of clown world.

Answers to this are idiosyncratic which is why there is no magical government program that produces a massive birthrate increase. *Need* is the only thing that will do it across the board.

Right, because government is the force backing the trend. The situations it creates and enforces results in predictable aggregate behavior. Individuals have agency, groups have patterns. Participation in western civilization is the only possible correlate, for many reasons, which always terminate in an individual's agency (or imposed by one's). For the same reason the "need" exists is the same reason it cannot be addressed with government tools, otherwise Germany would be having a (German) baby boom, while America would be worse off than South Korea.

Also it's not just Western women. The global birth rate is dropping. I mean for god's sake *Iran* has a birth rate of around 2.1%. It's not a Western culture thing specifically. It's a modernity thing.

The Amish fertility rate is roughly 6-7, with some families noted to have kids in the high teens. So yes, it is a modernity thing, which is why modernity will kill this iteration of itself. As I've said, I won't shed tears that an unsustainable, often perversely ridiculous, way of life goes extinct. It's the harm it does in the process. The lives ruined, or ended, because of the consequences of being sold Neverland as a lifestyle.

---

TTTX wrote:not to mention a lot of people didn't understand what the nazi really was about, sure they were racist but well so was the rest of Europe at the time and well some of the stuff the nazis did wasn't a new thing again America and Europa did similar things to minorities or in their colonies.

so these new nazi won't have much in terms of allies or business partners.

Exactly. This is part of why I see more and more people saying WW2 is our new "creation myth." The Enlightenment, Nietzsche, history of Jewish/European conflict, Darwinism, eugenics, WW1, they're less important than Hitler and the Nazis becoming metaphysical evils that sprang from nowhere to do bad things for the sake of it.

I imagine the fear is that if we did focus on the conditions that led to Hitler, then people would realize the same conditions still exist. Same ideas, same philosophies, same kinds of people, which would lead to the same outcome if allowed to. So "Nazi" becomes more magical, a new word for "pure evil being," than an actual description of a German socialist party from the last century. Then Neo-Nazis are playing into that perception, they're nothing like the real ones, they're acting out the made-up, magical definition of "Nazi."

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 8th, 2022, 3:52 pm

Vol wrote:The Amish fertility rate is roughly 6-7, with some families noted to have kids in the high teens.


And often can't sustain this number by farming and thus must heavily subsidize their living by working for the "English" or continually acquire more land, which is not often mentioned.

Pertinent bits extracted:

More than half of all Amish men here work in factories, a trend that accelerated over the last two decades, according to an analysis by Steven Nolt, a history professor at Goshen College. Increasing land prices and a growing population made it nearly impossible for farming alone to sustain the Amish community

and

Although farming continues to hold a revered place in Amish life, in many settlements the majority of Amish people have abandoned their plows. In some communities, fewer than 10 percent of the households receive their primary income from farming. This shift to nonfarm work is the biggest change in Amish society in the last century.

I'm pretty much on the "lower than replacement birthrate causes giant problems" side of the fence as I've already said and need no convincing this will eventually cause decline. I will refrain from continually chasing after the "it will destroy society" stuff unless you just want to hash that out beyond saying I think this is Nostradamus stuff based mostly on aesthetic preferences. But I'm still unsold on why significantly *above* replacement is a good thing (beyond idiosyncratic family by family personal preference) when we don't have appallingly high infant mortality or need for lots of unskilled agricultural labor. There's an argument to be made that insanely high birth rates producing excess people in the 3rd World is part of what allows modern societies to import people instead of make their own. There is no economic model where you out Africa Africa by producing native cheap labor without reducing our standard of living to Africa's.

And I must admit I tend to be suspicious of models that tie "the good life" to some immutable vision of very large families because I think that many of the people that put this model forward blame most modern problems on female control over fertility. More specifically, they believe that lack of control over fertility in the past rendered women into a state of necessary dependency and female agency specifically is a huge component of modern decline. For these people, huge families are not a goal of themselves but are simply an indication that female control over fertility has been undone and thus female dependency has been reinstated. I don't like this for obvious personal reasons, but it's also just silly on historical grounds.

People have always exercised control over fertility and "people" by necessity includes women. Two very well documented ones are that women would breastfeed children often for 3 or 4 years to delay pregnancy and that something like 10-20% of women in pre demographic transition Europe never married and remained spinsters their whole life. People who want to undo female agency are going to have to come up with something besides trying to undo fertility controls. People will just revert to old school fertility controls. And while, yes, these are less effective than IUDs or whatever, they are not so useless that they will somehow resuscitate social arrangements from 1653.

*Edit* The people that push the female dependency idea also tend to ignore the huge economic niche exercised by women which was the first thing industrialization destroyed. This does not mean these women weren't dependent legally, but they were also *useful* and *industrious.* Anybody pushing a model of mass female dependency needs to be able to answer the question, "okay great but what will women *do.*" If the answer is "very little" than families are going to look for ways to put the labor of women to use because it is too useful to ignore. In industrialization this meant instead of sitting around with a distaff, women went and worked in textile factories and such. Female labor has always been used.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Sinekein » March 8th, 2022, 7:10 pm

The USA are going to hand planes to Poland, which will hand planes to Ukraine (but planes Ukrainians know how to pilot).

I am curious to see what wording Russia will use to complain about it, and how NATO/the US will answer. Because at this point, everyone is living in a parallel reality, and there is just zero point in discussing (points to Macron for trying, but it's pretty much useless). When you see that Russia is going to host an "anti-fascist summit" and invites China, Saudi Arabia, India, the Belarus and the Emirates, I really fail to see what the whole point of diplomacy is.

On one hand I know escalation won't bring anything good, but on the other I am tired to see Putin giving a Trump-level demonstration of alternative facts to which NATO and Europe answer by trying to be roughly honest. You can't really win any argument with someone claiming that the sky is green and the clouds are pink. So I have a morbid curiosity about what would happen if NATO decided to go all "alternative facts" on Russia.

Like Academi/Blackwater "buying" aircraft carriers and being "hired" to "independently" fight in Ukraine. "What? No, this mercenary group has nothing to do with NATO interests or the US government, why do you ask?"

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 9th, 2022, 10:34 am

Getting a sense of the Russian Soul

On population genetics in Russia and Ukraine and assorted other places controlled by historical Russian Empire

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Someone With Mass » March 9th, 2022, 12:00 pm

Sinekein wrote:The USA are going to hand planes to Poland, which will hand planes to Ukraine (but planes Ukrainians know how to pilot).

I am curious to see what wording Russia will use to complain about it, and how NATO/the US will answer. Because at this point, everyone is living in a parallel reality, and there is just zero point in discussing (points to Macron for trying, but it's pretty much useless). When you see that Russia is going to host an "anti-fascist summit" and invites China, Saudi Arabia, India, the Belarus and the Emirates, I really fail to see what the whole point of diplomacy is.

On one hand I know escalation won't bring anything good, but on the other I am tired to see Putin giving a Trump-level demonstration of alternative facts to which NATO and Europe answer by trying to be roughly honest. You can't really win any argument with someone claiming that the sky is green and the clouds are pink. So I have a morbid curiosity about what would happen if NATO decided to go all "alternative facts" on Russia.

Like Academi/Blackwater "buying" aircraft carriers and being "hired" to "independently" fight in Ukraine. "What? No, this mercenary group has nothing to do with NATO interests or the US government, why do you ask?"


It's like what Ukraine's president said, it's pointless to argue or discuss anything with someone who already knows what they want to hear. Especially with the leader who's too stupid to realize that NATO is a defense alliance. An alliance that never signed a treaty which promised that they would not expand towards Russian borders.

Which is pretty fucking rich of Russia to call foul play on, since they're doing everyone dirty by exploiting the treaty that made Ukraine disarm their nuclear arsenal. And send it to Russia.

Then again, the Russian government has always felt like that bully who could dish out a lot of hate and hurt, but would immediately tattle with fiction to make everyone miserable if they got as much as a scratch in return.
"I imprint my thoughts on this device as a record of history. We began this journey as pilgrims of commerce and we now continue it as pilgrims of grace."

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 9th, 2022, 1:24 pm

Researcher finds 'stunning' rate of COVID among deer. Here's what it means for humans

Still nobody bringing up deer breeding facilities as the likely spillover point which is just baffling to me. These mass breed deer and them ship them around to various high fence ranches where there is absolutely exposure to and crossover with wild deer. All it takes is a hole in a fence at one ranch and one deer with Covid getting out.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 9th, 2022, 9:28 pm

A Guide to Ukraine's Far Right

*Edit* Slavic Neo-Nazis are just really fucking weird in general because Slavs were only slightly above Jews on Hitler's shit list. Don't get.

Legal podcast I listen to in which the last 16 minutes and 30 seconds or so are discussing the legal implications of Ukraine being granted EU status and what that may mean for obligations on defense: https://advisoryopinions.thedispatch.co ... iminal?s=r

Caveat these are both more or less US constitutional lawyers, but I see no real reason to think they are reading and interpreting the laws wrong.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Vol » March 10th, 2022, 11:10 am

It's appearing the US has been helping fund bioweapon facilities in Ukraine. Old Soviet ones, that for the last 17 years, we've been helping "convert" into "biodefense labs." I've noticed the stories about these labs use very carefully chosen verbiage, as well as Snopes saying it's not true. Therefore they absolutely are, but were designed to provide a legalese cover if found out. A veil of plausible deniability, "Oh, we had weaponized super-plague, but no dispersal mechanism, so it's not _technically_..." And given we also funded the Chinese lab that's caused the corona outbreak, these too are probably poorly run and defended, especially because Russia is sure as hell going to try and find them. Thankfully, as per the great psychic Marco Rubio, Ukrainian forces will never purposefully or accidently use these weapons that do not exist.

The story is scattershot right now, because of a war and Russian/Chinese propaganda, it'll be a little longer before the formal denial is coalesced and parroted into reality. But it's remarkable that even in an easy moral situation, assisting a country under invasion, incompetent evil has to spill out somewhere. Pus bubbling out of a poorly stitched wound.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Vol » March 10th, 2022, 1:30 pm

Ragabul wrote:Although farming continues to hold a revered place in Amish life, in many settlements the majority of Amish people have abandoned their plows. In some communities, fewer than 10 percent of the households receive their primary income from farming. This shift to nonfarm work is the biggest change in Amish society in the last century.

Does their unbowed population boom disprove the r/k selection justification?

I'm pretty much on the "lower than replacement birthrate causes giant problems" side of the fence as I've already said and need no convincing this will eventually cause decline. I will refrain from continually chasing after the "it will destroy society" stuff unless you just want to hash that out beyond saying I think this is Nostradamus stuff based mostly on aesthetic preferences. But I'm still unsold on why significantly *above* replacement is a good thing (beyond idiosyncratic family by family personal preference) when we don't have appallingly high infant mortality or need for lots of unskilled agricultural labor. There's an argument to be made that insanely high birth rates producing excess people in the 3rd World is part of what allows modern societies to import people instead of make their own. There is no economic model where you out Africa Africa by producing native cheap labor without reducing our standard of living to Africa's.

"Destruction" isn't the best word because of the connotations. It's correct, in that a mass mindset that fails to propagate will cease to exist as is. The urban Becky Girlboss only exists so long as people who don't embody that lifestyle allow their daughters to become one. Their permissiveness is the control valve.

If we built a utopian city of wonder, peace, and plenty, but it was occupied solely by eunuchs and the barren, it would be facile to claim that anything desirable or meaningful came from it. We all possess an intuitive sense that permanence matters, in all matters. DNA, businesses, architecture, relationships, science, books, recipes, they all "yearn" to exist indefinitely, and ideally we can tell which should. We leveraged massive resources and labor to make the lifetimes of an arbitrary group of arbitrary people wonderful, and then it ceased to be. Only Sam Harris could argue that scenario would be "good." How can we value a socioeconomic model that invariably does not value its own permanence? It's nonsense, like a book that commanded you to burn every copy, or a scientific theory that can only apply to one, singular event ever, or arguing in favor of entropy.

A rationalistic economic model would deify American Jane if she went to college, partied hard, had a career, 2 abortions, and maybe 1 kid that comes out as trans, then retires at 60 as a divorcee, because colleges, liquor stores, drug dealers, companies, abortionists, doctors, toy stores, pharmaceuticals, and lawyers all make a fortune from her, her life is a great boon to the economy. While African Annie should immigrate with her 5 sons, because they'll toil to provide the "necessaries," which undergird everything, and maybe move up the ladder someday to be like Jane. "Good numbers always go up" is a kind of permanence that enables horrors too, if we look at the last century.

And I must admit I tend to be suspicious of models that tie "the good life" to some immutable vision of very large families because I think that many of the people that put this model forward blame most modern problems on female control over fertility. More specifically, they believe that lack of control over fertility in the past rendered women into a state of necessary dependency and female agency specifically is a huge component of modern decline. For these people, huge families are not a goal of themselves but are simply an indication that female control over fertility has been undone and thus female dependency has been reinstated. I don't like this for obvious personal reasons, but it's also just silly on historical grounds.

That seems backwards. Lack of control over fertility is an issue because there's already a lack of control over everything else leading up to that. To use an inhumanly rationalistic model, even if everything that prevented or ended pregnancy became illegal in America, there is no legal compulsion for women to have sex, control over fertility is retained if we ignore how people actually behave. Whereas the inverse case, limited means of movement and wealth accumulation, but total control over fertility, would make no sense.

But as to people who hyper-focus on a pet issue that they extrapolate to "this is why everything is going crazy," yeah, they exist. I see them a lot, much less these days because I read different sources. But I understand the mindset, it's trying to make a symbolic point without the language or concepts to, because we're trained to be literalistic bugpeople. So if someone is saying that not keeping the dames barefoot and pregnant in the kitchen is why the west is dying, to steelman the argument, they're touching on something important but in a terribly expressed way.


Female labor has always been used.

Assuming that under liberalism that this spectrum accurately correlates with fertility, what is the sweet spot between total dependency and total agency?

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Vol » March 10th, 2022, 5:04 pm

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ex ... ce=twitter

March 10 (Reuters) - Meta Platforms (FB.O) will allow Facebook and Instagram users in some countries to call for violence against Russians and Russian soldiers in the context of the Ukraine invasion, according to internal emails seen by Reuters on Thursday, in a temporary change to its hate speech policy.


lol

Emails also showed that Meta would allow praise of the right-wing Azov battalion, which is normally prohibited, in a change first reported by The Intercept.

Meta spokesman Joe Osborne previously said the company was "for the time being, making a narrow exception for praise of the Azov Regiment strictly in the context of defending Ukraine, or in their role as part of the Ukraine National Guard."


lolol

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby FrozenShadow » March 11th, 2022, 11:35 am

Well, if you believe Ukrainian sources, then Russia had just done airstrikes to Belarus by their own planes, just from Ukrainian airspace. So, if Belarus will take this totally ridiculous bait and more than obvious provocative lie, it might soon be 2 vs 1 situation in Ukraine.

Though, this whole case might end up Belarus army entering Ukraine, but immediate defect and join Ukrainian side. I rather doubt most normal average Belarusian like the fact that their "President" had sold their country as "vassal state" for Russia.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 11th, 2022, 1:29 pm

Vol wrote:Does their unbowed population boom disprove the r/k selection justification?


I'd say not really for a couple of reasons. 1) The r/k selection theory is only a partial explanation for lower birthrates in developed countries. As already said, the reasons people don't have kids are idiosyncratic though there are certain more common reasons. 2) The unique position of the Amish is only possible *because* they are a vastly outnumbered minority in a majority culture very different from theirs. In a society which is majority Amish, the pressure to remain within the tribe (which currently requires being very devout and committed) lessons considerably. If the USA was 50% Amish and only 10% defected, you are talking 16 million defectors which is a nice sizable chunk of people to be among. As it currently stands, a defector Amish is abandoned by everyone they knew and finds themselves alone in a sea of strangers. That is a very strong incentive to stay in the tribe. On top of this, the novelty factor of the Amish is a large part of what has allowed them to pivot away from farming to small businesses. The reason "Amish made furniture" is novel is because the Amish are novel. And while training your kid to make expensive, hand-crafted chairs definitely requires some k strategy investment, it's simpler to put your 12 year old to work in the family shop and teach him as you work than it is to put him through 16 years of schooling for tens of thousands of dollars. Not *easier* necessarily, but simpler and cheaper. The fact the Amish can still maintain this model because the English are willing to plunk down lots of money for hand-crafted items does not mean a normie American could possibly hope to take adequate care of 6 or 7 kids while working as an elementary teacher or a secretary or a HVAC repair guy or whatever.

(I tried digging for actual family income data on Amish but it's all over the place and hard to make sense of. Some claim they have significantly higher household income on average than normie Americans while others claim higher than average poverty rates. And most all of the things I saw were of the "random asshole on forum says" variety. If I had to guess, they probably defy conventional attempts at data tracking. They are probably land rich and even with high income come out low to average because that income is diluted among so many children. They also probably barter a lot within communities and have complex nepotism and income sharing going on).

How can we value a socioeconomic model that invariably does not value its own permanence?


This is why I was saying it's mostly an aesthetic argument. It is distasteful and there's a natural desire for distasteful things to shrivel up and evaporate. Or for maladaptive things to hurry up and die already. But sometimes things with tumors just keep limping along and the thing that kills them is not the ugly growth. Where's the actual evidence the tumor will be the end of it? It's a projection based on current data assuming nothing will really change and that assumption of inevitability is fueled by aesthetic principles. (Something this wretched will get its due comeuppance). But how is that different from the Population Bomb in the 1970s? Or the Malthusian Trap? Or those people who look at birthrates among Amish and Quiverful and Hasidic Jews and conclude that by the end of the century, the planet will be covered by the deeply devout? Any of these look/looked completely plausible at the time and there would/will be a horde of people going "I told you so!" if they come to pass. I am not arguing against the plausibility of this outcome, but I am against the *certainty.* We are reasonably decent at making population and demographic projections for 10ish years into the future. For time scales of generations (especially with the wild card of cultural and technological change), we consistently stink at it.

Whereas the inverse case, limited means of movement and wealth accumulation, but total control over fertility, would make no sense.


Yeah, this seems correct now that I think about it. So to amend what I said the high fertility would not be the cause of female dependency, but the people I describe still favor it because it naturally follows from and is a sign that female agency has been radically reduced. Smoke doesn't cause fire, but if you are pro-fire, you are pro-smoke.

Assuming that under liberalism that this spectrum accurately correlates with fertility


I'd have to think about this some more, but I don't think it clearly does. You have to define agency for one. A poor single mother has total legal agency and there's many such dirt poor women who have multiple kids and are dirt poor largely *because* they have so many kids. Her legal agency is total. He economic agency is abysmal. And once you start getting into developed economies, the differences in fertility by income level starts to be pretty tiny and meaningless in aggregate. I tried digging into data on fertility rates by marital status and contraceptive use and some other things, but the data appears to be either nonexistent, really old, or in a horrible format I don't want to dig through. My hunch is that married uber educated wealthy women actually have 2.1 or higher fertility rate. I'm guessing lowest (other than teens) is for somewhat educated single women with middling income.

what is the sweet spot between total dependency and total agency?


The sweet spot should be interdependence of paired adults working together to raise children. It should be as hard for a man to extract himself from his family as a woman and vice versa. This would not be a panacea, but I would raise 0 ruckus if no-fault divorce was done away with again. Robust common law marriage (again Texas) might get you somewhere as well. Something like "if you live together with someone and have a child with them, they are legally now your spouse." I see no reason to make it harder for a woman to work or get an education or whatever than a man though.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Vol » March 11th, 2022, 10:36 pm

FrozenShadow wrote:Well, if you believe Ukrainian sources, then Russia had just done airstrikes to Belarus by their own planes, just from Ukrainian airspace. So, if Belarus will take this totally ridiculous bait and more than obvious provocative lie, it might soon be 2 vs 1 situation in Ukraine.

Though, this whole case might end up Belarus army entering Ukraine, but immediate defect and join Ukrainian side. I rather doubt most normal average Belarusian like the fact that their "President" had sold their country as "vassal state" for Russia.

You mean it's a false flag? There is no reasonable way Ukraine would invite further attack, so yeah. If that happened, false flag or a really stupid mistake.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Sinekein » March 14th, 2022, 1:51 am

Vol wrote:It's appearing the US has been helping fund bioweapon facilities in Ukraine. Old Soviet ones, that for the last 17 years, we've been helping "convert" into "biodefense labs." I've noticed the stories about these labs use very carefully chosen verbiage, as well as Snopes saying it's not true. Therefore they absolutely are, but were designed to provide a legalese cover if found out. A veil of plausible deniability, "Oh, we had weaponized super-plague, but no dispersal mechanism, so it's not _technically_..." And given we also funded the Chinese lab that's caused the corona outbreak, these too are probably poorly run and defended, especially because Russia is sure as hell going to try and find them. Thankfully, as per the great psychic Marco Rubio, Ukrainian forces will never purposefully or accidently use these weapons that do not exist.

The story is scattershot right now, because of a war and Russian/Chinese propaganda, it'll be a little longer before the formal denial is coalesced and parroted into reality. But it's remarkable that even in an easy moral situation, assisting a country under invasion, incompetent evil has to spill out somewhere. Pus bubbling out of a poorly stitched wound.


The US helping with former labs is plausible, just like Ukraine hosting former Russian weapons due to the fall of the USSR. That the US would develop bioweapons on foreign soil is already pretty unlikely. On non-NATO territory, it becomes almost impossible, especially in a country that has been under Russian influence until 2010 or something, and under Russian threat since.

But it would be easier to deny those pseudo-"Weapons of Mass Destruction" excuse if somebody had not proven earlier you could use a total bogus claim to wage war even when the rest of the world is calling them out on their bullshit. It's quite obvious Russia is using plausible deniability in case they resort to chemical attacks because the war is not going quickly enough.

Unrelated, but Black Panther's director has been handcuffed by police because a bank employee mistook him for a bank robber. He was deemed suspicious because he wanted to withdraw a large sum of money from his (entirely legal) bank account and handed the employee a note saying "be discreet". As in, "I'd rather people not know I'm going out from that place carrying a lot of cash".

Never change, America.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 14th, 2022, 1:24 pm

Thing supposedly written by some big shot Chinese foreign policy guy about what China should do because of Ukraine:

https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-ru ... na-choice/

*Edit*

Interesting semi-related thing. My China book finally got up to the Chinese Communist Party. Apparently, nothing of Marx was translated into Chinese at the CCP founding and it wasn't until 1920 that the Communist Manifesto was translated. Goes a long way towards explaining why Maoism is so weird and has borderline nothing to do with core Marxism.

In more Great Man theory stuff, there's a strong argument to be made that this chick is uniquely responsible for preventing China from trying out constitutional monarchy. And obviously if it had and had succeeded, the world would be a very different place.

And though I already knew this, the book really just brings it home that no place on Earth beats China in its ability to inflict ludicrous amounts of self harm. The number of Chinese civil wars that make "worst wars ever" list is nuts. Some estimates put the death toll of the Taipeng Rebellion as comparable to total deaths in WWII.

It also tops the list for manmade environmental disasters.

*Edit*

Also new glut of Ukraine articles from newsletter. Been focusing on books so I haven't read these yet either.

What the Russian Invasion Has Done to Ukraine

Ukraine Faces West

What Russian Officials Think of the War in Ukraine

Assessing the Realist (Political Theory) Prediction of the Ukraine Invasion

Putins Challenge to the American Right

Putin's Gambit

Inside Germany's Foreign and Security Policy Revolution

Why Do So Many Indonesians Back Putin's Invasion of Ukraine?

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Vol » March 14th, 2022, 10:41 pm

The client today was a very nice lady and left the TV on for me while I worked, it was in earshot of all the rooms I was in. Fox News is in rare form, pure neo-con mode. Though subtlety restrained, not calling for war by name, like the incompetent chef who knows there is such a thing as too much lemon on fish, but not where that line is. Normally Fox makes for pleasant noise, I don't have to think about what's said, rarely worth it, but instead enjoy a constant white noise of partial validation. Today, however, was more annoying. They ran multiple segments, across different shows, on "Could the attack on the foreign legionnaires/NATO training site that's 15 miles (or km depending on the source) from Poland lead to an attack on NATO!?"

The answer was "no," followed by, "and if it happened, it would be a grave mistake that would be quickly sorted out by diplomacy." The high point was a segment where the pundit went into emotional rhetoric on how Russia can and will be tried for war crimes for bombing civilian buildings, killing innocents, pregnant women, and so on. And I pictured myself making the same face I'd give to a 15 year old who earnestly believes he's onto some grand revelation about how the world works, but is parroting something incredibly retarded. A badly forced smile, squinting, trying to think of a nice way to ask them, "Do you wanna think about that one more than not at all?"

I wonder what ole' Rush would say about this. He threaded a needle between vague populism, GOP messaging, and saying nothing at all in many words.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 15th, 2022, 3:02 am

Sinekein wrote:Unrelated, but Black Panther's director has been handcuffed by police because a bank employee mistook him for a bank robber. He was deemed suspicious because he wanted to withdraw a large sum of money from his (entirely legal) bank account and handed the employee a note saying "be discreet". As in, "I'd rather people not know I'm going out from that place carrying a lot of cash".


This is sort of nitpicking but upon reading that, it's not terribly clear what else they could have done other than read people's minds or give him extra benefit of the doubt for no reason except he was black. The bank told the police he was robbing it. They didn't use unnecessary force. They didn't detain (meaning handcuffed) anybody but him. Once they understood the problem, they immediately let him go and apologized to everybody. I'm personally way more concerned about this random bank peon. He gets slightly wounded pride at most. She potentially gets blamed and sacked.

He was trying to withdraw more than US$10,000, and the bank employee "received an alert notification" from his account and quickly alerted her manager that Coogler was trying to rob the bank, the report says. The bank employee is a Black woman, the report says.

and

Police determined the whole thing was a mistake by the bank employee and Coogler "was never in the wrong." The handcuffs were immediately removed and the other two people were released from the back of the patrol vehicle, the report says.

All three were given an explanation and an apology for the bank employee's mistake and Coogler requested the names and badge numbers of the officers on the scene, the report says.


It says she made a mistake but the article itself implies she got a weird notification about his account and was presumably just doing what she was supposed to do.

Now, if he had been a random poor black dude, this probably wouldn't have gone down this way. But that just highlights the class element that gets utterly ignored half the time in this. Black women bank teller is also a comparative peon and if anybody gets the chop, it's the peon.

Agree about biohazards in Ukraine. Also, it's just not a good place to do such things because Ukraine was always at high risk of invasion compared to eleventy zillion other countries something like this could plausibly be done in.

@cable TV

I never was a big TV watcher in general so I never fell into cable news much. The only time I watch it is when there is some massive ongoing live event of huge importance (9/11, night Trump was elected, day we invaded Iraq, etc.) where I can't think about anything else anyway so I might as well inundate myself. They tend to lesson the spin for stuff like that and just focus on updating you and using annoying adjectives like "unprecedented" over and over anyway. I still read "mainstream news" (and I very much consider Fox part of this) to get big ticket events of the day, but I do not go to them for any kind of meaty analysis. If I find something of substance in mainstream news its because somebody outside mainstream news specifically pointed a given article out. I did used to listen to NPR fairly consistently on commutes and whatnot but they have just regressed to talking about like bad cliches of woke junk 50% of the time and I usually turn them off in disgust within 5 minutes of trying it out. Like a couple of recent articles I've seen (I do peruse their website to just see headlines still) was something like "Random white reviewer of this straight to streaming C list Pixar movie about Asians says its not relatable! the racism! the horror!" and another was something like "here's how to practice self-care because of what's happening in Ukraine." Like come the fuck on, the typical upper middle class NPR listener in fucking LA or whatever is having a nervous breakdown over Ukraine? Yeah, right. That is 100% performative.

I still maintain the only way to actually take in news without getting massively echo chambered is to intentionally read news from all over the Overton Window seasoned with things outside it. There are a few points of view I think are so stupid I don't seriously entertain anything written from them anymore. This include Kendi style antiracism, Jerry Falwell Jr. style Christian fundamentalism, trendy 20 something DSA style socialism, Ayn Rand type libertarianism, new Atheism, and a few other comparables.

Though I haven't discounted them entirely, I don't read much standard Trumpian stuff or "woke" progressive stuff because these are by far the most echo chambered, holier-than-thou persuasions currently on offer. They are so busy trying to cast out demons from their own midst by incessant struggle sessions and purges that they can barely ever bring themselves around to saying something worthwhile.

The persuasions I like the least that nonetheless consistently have good things to say are libertarianism, socialists that actually understand socialism, and hard-assed materialists. I try to read this stuff even though I don't like it. The things I have to work the hardest to peel the scales off my eyes are anything written from the viewpoint of some venerable religion, any kind of "little down home guy fights the man" type framework, and paleocons.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 15th, 2022, 10:29 am

Bleh, Sapir-Whorf horsehit right off the bat in new book on China. Not a strong start.

"His article demonstrated that the change from old empire to modern nation-state really ran in the opposite direction. Change began with words. As intellectuals struggled to explain and address the problems created by rapid modernization, they created new words or modified the meanings of old ones to describe the new situation. Those new words crystallized new ways of looking at society and changed the relationships between rulers and ruled. The result was government overthrow."

"All these massive changes were happening but really some wise sages created new words. And the magic new words entered the consciousness of the peasants and then the eyes of all of them were opened and they saw they were naked so they sewed fig leaves together and made clothes for..." yeah, no, horseshit.

Circumstances changed. Ergo society changed. People invented words for changed things after the fact. Words did not magically change anything.

*Edit*

Ugh. So dumb. I'll refrain from commenting every five minutes after this but this guy keeps going with this.

He talks about Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative, which is an attempt by China to partner with various countries (mostly in Asia and Africa) to build giant infrastructure projects in those countries. There's plenty of reasons this might be a problem and Xi has advertised it as a logical modern extension of the Silk Road. "Just like in the past all these countries developed mutually with trade and commerce so we can do so today." (With the obvious subtext that China should be the epicenter of said modern Silk Road).

Okay, great, pretty straight forward. But in the bizzaro land of critical theory and linguistic relativity, the writer feels the need to point out that the "Silk Road" is really a Western coinage and comes from something some German historian said back in the day and yet "Xi doesn't seem troubled by this."

Um, duh, why would he be troubled by this? He is talking about the actual *thing,* you know, the thing that demonstrably existed. The giant trade network across Central Asia that enriched dozens of cities like Samarkand and was full of Buddhist waystations and Sogdian merchants and giant camel caravans and was such a prize that umpity Steppe civilizations kept fighting giant wars to try to control it. The thing various European countries went sailing round the world to try to circumvent so they could get all the good stuff coming down it for way cheaper. You know, *that* Silk Road. Call it whatever you fucking want.

But see some German nobody has ever heard of first put a name to it a hundred odd years ago and with the words he spoke a magical spot of understanding materialized in the universe that had never existed before. And before where there was nothing, there was now this gestalt thing in everyone's mind called "the Silk Road" and Xi doesn't even notice how he's forwarding Eurocentrism or whatever. Quick, somebody, go get a time machine and tell all those Sogdian merchants that their trade route doesn't exist yet because some German hasn't spoken the magical words.

*Edit*

Chinese concept of Tianxia has apparently gotten adapted and applied to USA as American Tianxia, which is pretty interesting. I was just going on about how the USA is an empire that doesn't behave like a conventional empire. This weird concept does a somewhat good job of explaining it actually. Who knew the real deal was just that we had the Mandate of Heaven, lol?

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Sinekein » March 15th, 2022, 11:50 pm

Ragabul wrote:This is sort of nitpicking but upon reading that, it's not terribly clear what else they could have done other than read people's minds or give him extra benefit of the doubt for no reason except he was black. The bank told the police he was robbing it. They didn't use unnecessary force. They didn't detain (meaning handcuffed) anybody but him. Once they understood the problem, they immediately let him go and apologized to everybody. I'm personally way more concerned about this random bank peon. He gets slightly wounded pride at most. She potentially gets blamed and sacked.


The problem was not the police here. It's that in 2022, some people still think the only way for black people to own a significant amount of money is by committing a bank robbery.

That person is also a bank employee, who presumably sees hundreds of customers every year. To react like this...thankfully, everyone else kept a cool head, but what if Coogler had gotten angry (and, well, rightly so)?

She has the right to privately be an unrepentant racist and think the worst of black people, but when it starts to affect her workplace, then her being fired over it wouldn't bother me much.

Ragabul wrote:Okay, great, pretty straight forward. But in the bizzaro land of critical theory and linguistic relativity, the writer feels the need to point out that the "Silk Road" is really a Western coinage and comes from something some German historian said back in the day and yet "Xi doesn't seem troubled by this."


Even though I understand at least where the feeling comes from, there seems to be a market for Western self-flagellation as a whole. Some people probably feel somehow validated if they read about one more way the West is responsible for the world's misery.

And I mean, it played a part, and still does, but you don't have to always see the devil in the details. On the contrary, Xi relying on a Western word to describe China's plan for geopolitical dominance shouldn't be seen as "once again Western ideas having wrongfully influenced the rest of the world", but more like "Western influence being acknowledged and some basically trying to replicate it in their own area now".

I assume it's just something of a keyword to get easy cookie points from some people on Twitter. Just like conservatives throwing a joke about "identifying as a pair of socks".

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 16th, 2022, 6:01 am

Sinekein wrote:She has the right to privately be an unrepentant racist and think the worst of black people, but when it starts to affect her workplace, then her being fired over it wouldn't bother me much.


The article said she herself was a black woman and was responding to a notification the system gave about his account. I think at a bare minimum it would be necessary to know what that notification actually said before pillorying her. And I doubt a black woman is an unrepentant antiblack racist. It's not impossible, but highly unlikely.

I've never worked at a bank, but I imagine the notification is something like the tags you can add to a user account in a library catalog. If a patron puts a book in the dropbox that they tore to shreds as one example, you can add a note to their account saying something like "This patron cannot check out any more books until they pay $20 to replace the book they tore to shreds." That will pop up at for the circulation staff the next time they go to try to check out books.

I'd like to know what that tag on his account said and how it got there.

@ linguistic relativity stuff

In this case, I don't think it's standard Twitter level virtue signalling. He's pulling from Arif Dirlik, who so far as I can tell is notorious for issuing a Marxist critique of postcolonialism. A lot of this guys stuff is paywalled in academic databases unfortunately but my 10 minutes of digging on him seems to suggest his criticism is something like "a lot of postcolonial stuff is a sham because it incorporates ideas from the oppressors and is thus still validating the position of the oppressors."

The author is also talking about Sapir-Whorf stuff which covers a range of assertions but in its strongest, dumbest manifestation holds that since different languages have different structures and ways of conceptualizing things, the worldview of a modern English speaker and a random Amazonian tribesman are so alien as to be nigh unbridgeable. It's obviously true that people from insanely different backgrounds will have different worldviews, but it's stupid to think the reason for this is their language. Humans create words to describe things that already exist. Not the other way around.

But there are various people in the social sciences that take this mystical power of words to shape reality as some kind of given and thus make arguments about how control of language or shifting of language is *the* key to producing radical social change of whatever kind they happen to favor. (This academic stuff trickles down to the Twitter level in the form of weird, tribal language policing. Right-wingers respond with tribal language policing of their own, but it's usually reactive. So some phrase like "sex change operation" gets labeled as problematic and to be replaced with "gender-affirming surgery" or "illegal aliens" with "undocumented immigrants" or whatever and right wingers will stubbornly persist in the old labels as a form tribal signal in response).

Since this guy is combining Sapir-Whorf with a Marxist critique of postcolonialism, he ends up with statements like that first one I quoted up above. "Magical western words and concepts entered the minds of the Chinese and caused them to think in ways they had never thought before and from this sprang the massive revolutionary changes that followed."

But the thing the Chinese were responding to was changing *circumstances.* Sure, they may have borrowed Western words to put names on things they didn't have words for much like English speakers will say schadenfreude or ennui, but it's not like those concepts were magically created in the Anglophone psyche at the moment the loanword first popped into being. In fact, the whole point of a loanword is something like "Oh yeah, *that* thing. We don't have a word for that but I totally know about that. We should have a word for that so let's borrow this one."

The book is making a good case that the Chinese worldview at the point in time they first encountered large numbers of aggressive Europeans was very different from those Europeans and that the Europeans forced the Chinese to reassess their entire understanding of the centrality of their state and how international affairs worked. But the reason for this was because of they lost two Opium Wars to these Western barbarians and then had to ignobly turn to the barbarians for help to put down various internal uprisings. These uprisings were not new. China is like *the* land of peasant rebellions par excellence. Because they were physically weakened and only after they were physically weakened did they seek out Western concepts for the explicit purpose of understanding Westerners better. But Westerners did not somehow put some kind of word cancer in the minds of the Chinese that turned them into revolutionaries. China has always had revolutionaries. When they got exposed to Western stuff, they started to incorporate it as well. The founder of the Ming Dynasty was the successful leader of a giant peasant rebellion as one example.

*Edit* Book does make a good case that 19th century style Social Darwinism type racism was completely a Western implant into China though. They really didn't have anything like that though they obviously had the kind of us vs them ethnic conflicts or "civilized" vs "uncivilized" that everybody has. Just no Western style race science.

Incidentally they picked it up not directly from Westerners but through the intermediary of Japan who were big on this stuff at the time.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Vol » March 16th, 2022, 4:16 pm

To add a few more words to the post-modern pyre of meaninglessness, "genocide, war crime, traitor, treason." They are now also synonyms for "thing/person Grug think bad," to join, "racist, Nazi, redneck, Trumpist, liberal, conservative, communist, socialist, Berniebros, TERF, Boomer/Millennial/Zoomer," and many others.

There's probably a point to be made about dilution of language into ur-concepts.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Sinekein » March 16th, 2022, 10:42 pm

Ragabul wrote:The article said she herself was a black woman and was responding to a notification the system gave about his account. I think at a bare minimum it would be necessary to know what that notification actually said before pillorying her. And I doubt a black woman is an unrepentant antiblack racist. It's not impossible, but highly unlikely.


You can pretty well internalize racist ideas despite being part of the oppressed yourself. SLJ's character in Tarantino's Django is a caricature, but it is not unfounded. I had read a story (in France) about some North Africans who, when they get executive jobs, are even less likely to hire other North Africans than the average, because they think they're lazy.

Ragabul wrote:Since this guy is combining Sapir-Whorf with a Marxist critique of postcolonialism, he ends up with statements like that first one I quoted up above. "Magical western words and concepts entered the minds of the Chinese and caused them to think in ways they had never thought before and from this sprang the massive revolutionary changes that followed."


That sounds quite a bit condescending (which is not surprising). It also ignores that during history, cultural exchanges have existed for a long while. We wouldn't have had a Renaissance in Europe had the Middle East not been both way more advanced and keen to trade and exchange ideas at the time. It's because Arabic empires decided to preserve Greek writings instead of burning them down as heretic that they got rediscovered during the Renaissance.

The exchange rate might have increased with globalization, true...but it's not a Western invention. Especially in the case of a civilization that is wayyy older than any Western one.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Vol » March 16th, 2022, 11:33 pm

Ragabul wrote:I'd say not really for a couple of reasons. 1) The r/k selection theory is only a partial explanation for lower birthrates in developed countries. As already said, the reasons people don't have kids are idiosyncratic though there are certain more common reasons.

R/k applied to humans is an analogy at best anyway, post hoc. Humans can do both, or neither, so the application is useless compared to elephants and stinkbugs.

2) The unique position of the Amish is only possible *because* they are a vastly outnumbered minority in a majority culture very different from theirs.

The Amish pay all applicable taxes. The external world is what makes them compelled to deal with the English as they do, to pay us not to seize their land to give to banks and multinational companies. There is an upper limit on what reasonable amount of farmland they could sow is, where they'd be compelled to find other avenues for their sons, but pressure from the outside to perpetually pay for the land they toil is not that. If they were tax exempt, you would see far less novelties. Which in a way makes my point, it is the imposition of "us" that compels the Amish to stop doing what was working for them.

Yeah, this seems correct now that I think about it. So to amend what I said the high fertility would not be the cause of female dependency, but the people I describe still favor it because it naturally follows from and is a sign that female agency has been radically reduced. Smoke doesn't cause fire, but if you are pro-fire, you are pro-smoke.

That sounds about right. It could be broken down further into the purpose, it would be intensely dishonest to relate a highly religious family attempting to embody traditional behavior with a man whose philosophy on gender dynamics is the Gor books.

I'd have to think about this some more, but I don't think it clearly does.

The data would be nigh impossible to get, much less control for. My mother had 3 kids, her twin sister had 0, and they were raised identically. Agency has to be the primary factor, which is mostly outside causative analysis, with countless possible environmental considerations. A fairly strong correlation is about the best we can expect to find. I could never (in serious conversation) say that birth control and feminism has killed the west, but I can say that they made generations of women aware of the possibility of new options, mainly as contrary to their mothers, and have been strongly endorsed as a superior mode of life. It wouldn't be causative, since in a high-agency society the choice does come down to the woman, but overlaying fertility rate and disagreeing with feminism/BC is going to correlate, as much as any other cultural factors that can be considered in personal behavior.

My hunch is that married uber educated wealthy women actually have 2.1 or higher fertility rate. I'm guessing lowest (other than teens) is for somewhat educated single women with middling income.

I agree. Anecdotally and logically it rings true. The issue being that on the default road of American life, becoming a somewhat educated single woman with middling income is what happens, unless a man worth having intervenes, and we've got major problems on our end with producing those.

The sweet spot should be interdependence of paired adults working together to raise children. It should be as hard for a man to extract himself from his family as a woman and vice versa. This would not be a panacea, but I would raise 0 ruckus if no-fault divorce was done away with again. Robust common law marriage (again Texas) might get you somewhere as well. Something like "if you live together with someone and have a child with them, they are legally now your spouse." I see no reason to make it harder for a woman to work or get an education or whatever than a man though.

On that, the Catholics/Orthodox have the right of it. The first marriage is the "real" one, and while exceptional circumstance might permit a second, it doesn't make the first annulled so much as recognize the failures of people to do it right. No quickie marriages, easy ordinations, no-faults, divorce lawyers, serial divorcees, burden lessening bullshit. The idea that oaths of eternal love and devotion aren't that, and in fact a majority are temporary and conditional, is repulsive. It's a whole mindset that makes me want to rant, "I get to do what I want but also there has to be ways to escape the consequences," has ruined the lives of myself and so many people I know that I'm probably too emotionally invested to be fair.

As for women working/learning, eh. There are no tabula rasa. Plenty of people would say I'm making it harder for women to become a super-programmer-CEO-astronaut if I made all girls take Home Ec., but would that be so wrong? Or if you meant "harder" in the sense of denying the possibility of going to school or holding a job, that's a bit more extreme than I've ever seen seriously considered.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 17th, 2022, 9:41 am

Vol wrote:There is an upper limit on what reasonable amount of farmland they could sow is


And this would be notably different from the past so long as they continued to use modern medicine and thus avoid historical rates of infant mortality. There has never been a mass agrarian + modern medicine society (other than ones in transition states to modern economies) so I can't predict specifically when or how they'd run into problems, but it seems self evident that they would if they didn't do something to adjust.

That sounds about right. It could be broken down further into the purpose, it would be intensely dishonest to relate a highly religious family attempting to embody traditional behavior with a man whose philosophy on gender dynamics is the Gor books.


These are the type I'm talking about. Or rather it's the type who read a blog post on bad evo-psych somewhere and inflate that into an entire worldview while ignoring any kind of historical information or common sense observations that undermine their point. There are certainly really wretched interpretations of religions that are only a slight cut above this, but they are not typical especially in the West. If I had to be female in the past, I'll take Christian Europe after the fall of the Roman Empire over pretty much any other civilization on offer. (There's a few pretty good pockets like ancient Egypt or the Minoans and various miscellaneous tribes that weren't too bad so long as some neighboring horrible tribe didn't attack them).

and have been strongly endorsed as a superior mode of life.


This I can agree with as a major component, but it's part of the same package selling everybody the idea that unending self-actualization and identity curation are the entire point of life. Women are humans. They are just as likely to choose the flashy trendy choice over the boring better choice as men are. The unfortunate reality of a sell-by date on female fertility also makes potential consequences of foot dragging all the worse.

Plenty of people would say I'm making it harder for women to become a super-programmer-CEO-astronaut if I made all girls take Home Ec., but would that be so wrong?


Not really, but you can make an argument of the usefulness of this for boys as well. Knowing how to cook, manage household finances, etc. are generically useful skills. And, of course, a big part of the problem with people fighting over this is that nobody is dealing in specifics. One side talks vaguely about female agency but doesn't say what that means and the other about needing women to embrace a more traditional role but also not saying what that means or what they will do to bring it about. For some specifics, I think it's a complete waste of time at best and approaches cruel at worse to keep beating our heads against the reality of divergence in various professions in male/female ratio. There will almost certainly always be way more male engineers, constructions workers, soldiers, & senators than women and this is not a problem. I also do think it's fair that even if women are minorities in various places, grotesque harassment, discrimination, or disparagement should not be treated with "oh well, you'll have that" levels of indifference, which was pretty normal until a few decades ago. We also seriously need to stop pretending there are not real average differences in male and female levels of libido & sex preferences. It is absolutely stupid to teach girls that male sex preferences are 100% cultural and that if only we could adopt the right policies we could shape it however we want, and thus she can behave in anyway whatever and bear no causal responsibility for what happens. (Note, I said *causal* responsibility and not moral responsibility. Rapists bear moral responsibility for what they do, but it's certainly the case that women can engage in more or less stupid behavior that increases the chance they will be assaulted or mistreated). Men on average are stronger, hornier, more aggressive, and more okay with casual sex than women. Period. Pretending otherwise gets people burned.

*Edit*

Almost done with the new China book which wasn't a very long one. It makes a point very well, just not the point it sets out to make. The point it succeeds in making is that in late 1800s to early 1900s China was an anachronistic state and the worldview of most of its officials was closer to something from antiquity than from Europe post Treaty of Westphalia. It got a very rude and abrupt crash course in post-Westphalian international arrangements and hurriedly (and botchedly) tried to shoehorn itself into a tidy modern state. This created all kinds of problems it is still dealing with today.

The author fails to undermine the idea that there is a culturally consistent and ancient state in the vicinity of the Yellow River that Westerners have slapped the name of China on though. Its history is certainly neither as ancient or as seamless as the CCP makes out, but there is an undeniable continuity since at least Confucius. The fact that this author mostly ignores Confucian thought is a massive hole in his argument. It's rather like saying something called "Western Europe" as an identifiable entity doesn't exist while fastidiously ignoring the existence of Catholicism.

*Edit*

By Jove, the book has succeeded in making the case that one whole word with different meanings in Chinese and English created a different outlook. Namely, in the South China Sea there are lots of shoals which are shallow features a ship might run aground on but which are not above the water. China never had much in the way of naval exploration so they were largely ignorant of many of these features until well into the 20th century. In an attempt to push for maximalist territorial claims, early Chinese nationalists went pouring over old maps looking for features in the sea to claim. There is no Chinese word for shoal so they translated these features on British maps as "sandbank" while implies they are above water and thus actual islands someone can claim.

Also, more evidence for how the Treaty of Versailles might be the worst treaty ever. It seems like half the wars and conflicts of the 20th century have their roots at least partially in somebody being pissed off by this treaty. (China lost a bunch of territory despite helping Allies and was pissed off).

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 18th, 2022, 12:15 pm

I'm either delusional or I maybe read too much political junk or both, but increasingly I feel like I can tell the politics of a writer even when they don't explicitly state them. Last person was maybe not a literal Marxist, but definitely sympathetic to some kind of internationalist leftism. New person is a liberal through and through.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Mazder » March 18th, 2022, 3:16 pm

Ragabul wrote:I'm either delusional or I maybe read too much political junk or both, but increasingly I feel like I can tell the politics of a writer even when they don't explicitly state them. Last person was maybe not a literal Marxist, but definitely sympathetic to some kind of internationalist leftism. New person is a liberal through and through.

An interesting skill, could you extend it to just when people say/do?
Because I still have no idea what label I'd be :D

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 18th, 2022, 4:09 pm

You don't strike me as somebody with a set ideology actually from what I've seen you say on here though I get how that can come off as me dodging the question. Most people don't have one.

Some species of centrist that tacks left or right of center based on circumstances is my best guess.

And that is my fortune cookie level prognostication for today.

I don't really think it's something I can tell from just talking to people or even just based on voting record or something. It's more when you read people make grandiose arguments and you see the kinds of things they are keen to tear down, the kinds of moral asides they make, the kinds of adjectives they choose for specific political factions, who they choose to quote, what they dwell on and what they gloss over, you start noticing patterns.

For examples from the last couple of books:

Bill Hayton. He starts off quoting and using an explicit framework taken from a known Marxist Arif Dirlik. He is very keen to undermine Chinese national myths and incessantly paints such myths firmly at the hands of specifically Chinese nationalist chauvinists (ignoring anybody else in the political cauldron that was early 20th century China who may have contributed to such myths). He almost never ventures an opinion on anything except to specifically condemn nationalism. He ignores Confucianism. He quotes Gramsci. He specifically offers a counter to fractious Chinese nationalism suppressing various minorities in the form of the EU (as opposed to federalism or independence movements for those places). At the end he explicitly says China is more fascistic than merely authoritarian or socialistic.

I'm getting form this 1) dislike of what he considers to be the intrinsic fractiousness of nationalist movements, 2) an appreciation for internationalist commitments, 3) a disdain for myths in general for being made up and for getting in the way of internationalist commitments

That's like standard issue leftist which is explicitly internationalist and anti-nationalist, completely materialist, disdainful of organizing myths in general (religious, national, whatever).

Julia Lovell. She spends lots of time reassuring readers that she knows that colonialism sucks and that independence movements from it are understandable. She then goes on to say that despite this Mao Zedong was horrible because he was authoritarian and spends lots of time and detail in particular on his persecutions of people for thought crimes. She compares him to Donald Trump as an opportunistic populist who uses pithy sayings and machismo to trick the masses. She talks with equal opportunity about how horrible the early Chinese chauvinists were and how awful the communists were. Along with focusing on his persecution of people guilty of thought crimes, she pays close attention to his feminism hypocrisy (he was a serial philanderer who impregnated and abandoned women) and to anybody that singles out women for mistreatment.

From that I'm getting standard issue upper middle class white lady liberal feminist vibes.

Fully acknowledge I could be 100% wrong.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 19th, 2022, 12:36 pm

Not that I needed much convincing on this, but this book does not present a particularly flattering portrayal of assorted anti-colonial independence movements. In most of these places it really is like, "okay, chose between these options: 1) militant violent Maoist revolutionaries who want to suppress or kill everyone but peasants and force peasants onto communes, 2) militant violent nationalists who have it out for X minority and follow some crazy wannabe dictator guy, 3) whatever the local variety of religious fanaticism is. Have fun." There are almost no "good guys" in these conflicts. They are just clusterfucks.

I also knew way less about Japan than I thought I did. I think my view of Japanese development may have mostly been based on my uncle who was in the Navy and stationed all over the world. He was in Japan in like the 60s I want to say and said that at that time "there was raw sewage running down the streets" and such. I knew the Meiji reformation was a thing and obviously they had a strong military in WWII but I never really put this together. I think my uncle's story plus the 80s era panic over the rise of Japan just sort of had me thinking they developed later than they did. But no, it seems they were as or more developed than a big chunk of Europe *before* WWII. Anyway, some kind of turn of 20th century history of Japan thing might be in order in all this too. They are massively important for understanding what China did in this era as well.

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 21st, 2022, 10:19 am

Close to finishing the Maoism book. (Horizon: Forbidden West is a very good mindless game to listen to audiobooks to especially if you never fast travel anywhere and prefer the "slowly snipe things to death" el cheeso tactics I usually employ). No bombshells in this one because I had already read some about Maoism through the proxy of reading about various far left radical groups in the USA form the 1960s to 1970s.

A few takeaways though.

1) Old timey far left radicalism was massively big on machismo. A non terrible description of Maoism is "imagine if Donald Trump was a tankie."

2) Maoism is probably much more influential overall than vanilla Leninism was. Post death of Stalin most far left radicals explicitly took their cue from Mao and not Khrushchev who they considered a sellout. Considering the height of cold war hot conflicts was well after the death of Stalin, this means most of the groups we fought or opposed were explicitly Maoist.

3) When you consider the above, it means China has way, way, way more soft power than it appears they do and also a lot more responsibility for various horrors of the 20th century than various motivated parties like to admit.

4) A lot more modern radical left-wing whackery pulls from Maoism than I otherwise thought. It's arguably as big a component as critical theory. It's just this whackery tends to come from the bottom up and not the top down because Mao really appeals to disaffected, young "some people just want to watch the world burn" types.

*Edit*

The Multipolar World Dies in Ukraine Has info about how Germany may not be able to just flip a switch and do military building

Thing About Taking that Statement from a Chinese Think Tank on Ukraine with a Grain of Salt

The Intellectual Catastrophe of Vladimir Putin Argument that one of Putin's chief weaknesses is that he cannot articulate a believable, invigorating ideological justification for what he is doing, unlike tsars of the past who were defending Orthodoxy against liberal secularism or communists defending against imperialism/capitalism. Given I am reading a book right now that goes over in detail how eager assorted people in the 3rd World were to latch onto Maoism despite its obvious stupidity and hypocrisy because they liked the *idea* of it relative to their own circumstances, I think this argument is on to something. (Not so much the breathless eagerness to pretend 1848 was nigh in Eastern Europe or whatever, but that Putin's position is unusually ideologically bankrupt on top of being morally bankrupt).

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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Mazder » March 21st, 2022, 3:17 pm

Ragabul wrote:You don't strike me as somebody with a set ideology actually from what I've seen you say on here though I get how that can come off as me dodging the question. Most people don't have one.

Some species of centrist that tacks left or right of center based on circumstances is my best guess.

And that is my fortune cookie level prognostication for today.

I don't really think it's something I can tell from just talking to people or even just based on voting record or something. It's more when you read people make grandiose arguments and you see the kinds of things they are keen to tear down, the kinds of moral asides they make, the kinds of adjectives they choose for specific political factions, who they choose to quote, what they dwell on and what they gloss over, you start noticing patterns.

Sorry for not getting back to this sooner.

Sounds about right for me.
I lean left on most issues, and even the few right wing things I like I do prefer a more measured approach to them (like guns, I prefer actual good and clear laws written as well as categorization and tests and shit as well as proper licences if they're to be had rather than a just "I want it because the document saying we can is vague and weapons have gone further than what they said so why not have a 50cal?")

Some things I don't fully understand so that adds to the flip flopping on occasion, or a lot, lol.

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Ragabul
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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 21st, 2022, 3:40 pm

More links:

Ukraine and the Clash of Civilization theory, an interview with Olivier Roy He is correct that a Christianity vs Islam conflict largely collapsed partially because Islamism largely collapsed an any kind of unified, competent front. The lack of unification or competence on a given front doesn't really undermine Huntington's arguments though (although it might mean certain specific assertions of his are false). Far from the Ukraine/Russia conflict disproving what he was saying, I think it reinforces it. Russia was willing to go to war rather than let Ukraine slip out of its "civilizational" sphere and into another. Huntington also predicted internal chaos in the USA between warring civilizational factions, which seems more than a little on point. (Specific book was Who Are We?: The Challenges to American National Identity)

Will the Ukraine War End the Age of Populism? Dumb headline. Not what Douthat is arguing. The article's point is that the liberal gather round the flag stuff over Ukraine has not magically made all the problems that produced Brexit, Trump, Zenmour, Orban, et al. go away.

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Ragabul
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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Ragabul » March 21st, 2022, 6:06 pm

Finished Mao book, but sick of China so moving on to this:

Image

Supposed to be the flagship work in the genre of "the West has some variety of mind rot or other that is ruining everything."

*Edit*

Why Can't the West Admit Ukraine is Winning?

0 idea how accurate that assessment is. I have not even somewhat been trying to follow day to day doings on the ground in Ukraine because 1) I know basically nothing about front line military stuff and so wouldn't understand what I was reading anyway & 2) details kind of bore me and I've always been more interested in macro level ideas and issues. Main reason I opted to not become an actual academic. Having to focus on 1 thing in ludicrous detail sounds miserable.

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Vol
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Re: Politics/Slapfights - Ancient history to modern day!

Postby Vol » March 21st, 2022, 7:07 pm

Mazder wrote:An interesting skill, could you extend it to just when people say/do?
Because I still have no idea what label I'd be :D

I'll parrot Raga, you don't have a set ideology. Generally centrist, left leaning, but not anchored to any specific place on any issue. Strong appreciation for structure and certain kinds of authority, but structure is vitally important above all else. The tone I usually read into your opinions is a rejection of the "old days," what I'm picturing 1930's England to be like I guess, but a desire to preserve what you find familiar, "your" old days. Moderate (philosophical) liberal is the best label, I think. Which is probably 90%+ of westerners.

Ragabul wrote:And that is my fortune cookie level prognostication for today.

My turn!

what they dwell on

A few years ago, either you or Sine, on the topic of women in the military, made the point that if I was to be consistent, I would have to reject the concept of servicewomen entirely. No one is perfectly consistent, but what can I keep if I reject certain beliefs? It's a rabbit hole, and I'll avoid making the white rabbit joke.

Ragabul wrote:Will the Ukraine War End the Age of Populism? Dumb headline. Not what Douthat is arguing. The article's point is that the liberal gather round the flag stuff over Ukraine has not magically made all the problems that produced Brexit, Trump, Zenmour, Orban, et al. go away.

Can't access the article, because I will not pay those people a penny for their works, but based on your description, they're not wrong. Populism only has real power as much as it's allowed to, and the gates are closing on what's allowed. G@m3rz yelling "faggot" on Xbox Live was the canary in the coalmine, in a really stupid way. It bears repeating that every single slippery slope argument has been correct, the idea it was a fallacy flourished in the delay between tearing down the fence and the consequences.

That said, when Trump wins for the third time, we'll see how the wind is blowing. If the automatons agitating for WW3 in every fucking public soaphouse, sans Tucker, get their way, maybe some real change can be affected.

Ragabul wrote:0 idea how accurate that assessment is.

They're fighting a heroic, but doomed, delaying action to try and get NATO (America) to fight for them, or otherwise squeeze Russia's balls into submission. There is no win condition that keeps Zelensky in power and Ukraine """democratic""" otherwise. The pundits/politicians agitating for war and puffing up Ukraine's grim reality stand to personally benefit or are sociopaths.


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